BP OIL SPILL PREDICTIONS WAS Re: THE HOLY GRAIL
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From: Graham Cooper on 12 Jun 2010 19:35 On Jun 5, 11:22 pm, "Jesse F. Hughes" <je...(a)phiwumbda.org> wrote: > "|-|ercules" <radgray...(a)yahoo.com> writes: > > "Ostap Bender" <ostap_bender_1...(a)hotmail.com> wrote > >>>> Ask anything you want-to-know > >>> > [...] > > >>> > Ok. About the Gulf of Mexico B.P. related oil spill: > >>> > - Will Florida be affected by the end of 2010? > > > 2001 (close!) > > So, no answer? > > > > >>> > - Will the Chairman or CEO resign this year? > > > Man Of The House (million to one answer for this question) > > Does it mean yes or no? And does it apply to the chairman or the CEO? > > >>> > - How much will it cost B.P.? > > > Budget is small (million to one answer for this question) > > So, no real answer? I guess this means it won't cost BP much. How > much is much? > > > > >>> > - When will oil stop pouring into the water (what month) ? > > > 9 - 11 (million to one answer for this question) > > Does this mean that it will stop sometime between Sept. and Nov., or > does this mean it will stop on Sept. 11? > > -- > "Sorry, wakeup to the real world. You're on your own dependent on me > as your guide. Luckily for you, I'm self-correcting to a large extent, > so if the proof were wrong, I'd tell you. It's not wrong." > --- James Harris confirms that his proof is correct. If you want me to see your reply don't snip aus.tv. Do you interrogate people with English as a second language until their sentence is perfect grammar and a direct precise answer? Will he resign? -> Man about the house?? You seriously don't get it? Herc
From: Jesse F. Hughes on 13 Jun 2010 00:18 Graham Cooper <grahamcooper7(a)gmail.com> writes: > On Jun 5, 11:22 pm, "Jesse F. Hughes" <je...(a)phiwumbda.org> wrote: >> "|-|ercules" <radgray...(a)yahoo.com> writes: >> > "Ostap Bender" <ostap_bender_1...(a)hotmail.com> wrote >> >>>> Ask anything you want-to-know >> >>> > [...] >> >> >>> > Ok. About the Gulf of Mexico B.P. related oil spill: >> >>> > - Will Florida be affected by the end of 2010? >> >> > 2001 (close!) >> >> So, no answer? >> >> >> >> >>> > - Will the Chairman or CEO resign this year? >> >> > Man Of The House (million to one answer for this question) >> >> Does it mean yes or no? And does it apply to the chairman or the CEO? >> >> >>> > - How much will it cost B.P.? >> >> > Budget is small (million to one answer for this question) >> >> So, no real answer? I guess this means it won't cost BP much. How >> much is much? >> >> >> >> >>> > - When will oil stop pouring into the water (what month) ? >> >> > 9 - 11 (million to one answer for this question) >> >> Does this mean that it will stop sometime between Sept. and Nov., or >> does this mean it will stop on Sept. 11? >> >> -- >> "Sorry, wakeup to the real world. You're on your own dependent on me >> as your guide. Luckily for you, I'm self-correcting to a large extent, >> so if the proof were wrong, I'd tell you. It's not wrong." >> --- James Harris confirms that his proof is correct. > > > If you want me to see your reply don't snip aus.tv. > > Do you interrogate people with English as a second language until > their sentence is perfect grammar and a direct precise answer? > > Will he resign? -> Man about the house?? It was "man of the house". You can interpret that as either: He will resign and hence be a man of his house or He is the man of the house of BP and that won't change. But, never mind. We'll take your interpretation. If the CEO does not resign by the end of the year, then you are mistaken about your powers. > You seriously don't get it? I seriously see that these answers are ambiguous. How come your sources of perfect information cannot say more precisely than 9-11? Three months? -- "When you go to class today, if your professor talks about algebraic number theory, or misuses Galois Theory[,] I want you to carefully notice how you feel. Hold on to that feeling so that you never forget it." --James S. Harris, on channeling rage via Galois theory.
From: Government Shill #2 on 13 Jun 2010 01:10 On Sat, 12 Jun 2010 16:35:30 -0700 (PDT), Graham Cooper <grahamcooper7(a)gmail.com> wrote: >On Jun 5, 11:22�pm, "Jesse F. Hughes" <je...(a)phiwumbda.org> wrote: >> "|-|ercules" <radgray...(a)yahoo.com> writes: >> > "Ostap Bender" <ostap_bender_1...(a)hotmail.com> wrote >> >>>> Ask anything you want-to-know >> >>> > [...] >> >> >>> > Ok. �About the Gulf of Mexico B.P. related oil spill: >> >>> > - Will Florida be affected by the end of 2010? >> >> > 2001 � (close!) >> >> So, no answer? >> >> >> >> >>> > - Will the Chairman or CEO resign this year? >> >> > Man Of The House � (million to one answer for this question) >> >> Does it mean yes or no? �And does it apply to the chairman or the CEO? >> >> >>> > - How much will it cost B.P.? >> >> > Budget is small �(million to one answer for this question) >> >> So, no real answer? �I guess this means it won't cost BP much. �How >> much is much? >> >> >> >> >>> > - When will oil stop pouring into the water (what month) ? >> >> > 9 - 11 �(million to one answer for this question) >> >> Does this mean that it will stop sometime between Sept. and Nov., or >> does this mean it will stop on Sept. 11? >> >> -- >> "Sorry, wakeup to the real world. �You're on your own dependent on me >> as your guide. Luckily for you, I'm self-correcting to a large extent, >> so if the proof were wrong, I'd tell you. �It's not wrong." >> � --- James Harris confirms that his proof is correct. > > >If you want me to see your reply don't snip aus.tv. > >Do you interrogate people with English as a second language until >their sentence is perfect grammar and a direct precise answer? > >Will he resign? -> Man about the house?? > >You seriously don't get it? I get it. Man about the house = TV show TV show = The Apprentice The Apprentice = Donald Trump Donald Trump = CEO So... Will he resign? -> No. Got ya Burk. -- Shill #2 Ears on the loon go round and round, round and round, round and round... theobviousgcashman
From: David Bernier on 13 Jun 2010 04:20 Jesse F. Hughes wrote: > Graham Cooper<grahamcooper7(a)gmail.com> writes: > >> On Jun 5, 11:22 pm, "Jesse F. Hughes"<je...(a)phiwumbda.org> wrote: >>> "|-|ercules"<radgray...(a)yahoo.com> writes: >>>> "Ostap Bender"<ostap_bender_1...(a)hotmail.com> wrote >>>>>>> Ask anything you want-to-know >>>>>>> [...] >>> >>>>>>> Ok. About the Gulf of Mexico B.P. related oil spill: >>>>>>> - Will Florida be affected by the end of 2010? >>> >>>> 2001 (close!) >>> >>> So, no answer? >>> >>> >>> >>>>>>> - Will the Chairman or CEO resign this year? >>> >>>> Man Of The House (million to one answer for this question) >>> >>> Does it mean yes or no? And does it apply to the chairman or the CEO? >>> >>>>>>> - How much will it cost B.P.? >>> >>>> Budget is small (million to one answer for this question) >>> >>> So, no real answer? I guess this means it won't cost BP much. How >>> much is much? >>> >>> >>> >>>>>>> - When will oil stop pouring into the water (what month) ? >>> >>>> 9 - 11 (million to one answer for this question) >>> >>> Does this mean that it will stop sometime between Sept. and Nov., or >>> does this mean it will stop on Sept. 11? >>> >>> -- >>> "Sorry, wakeup to the real world. You're on your own dependent on me >>> as your guide. Luckily for you, I'm self-correcting to a large extent, >>> so if the proof were wrong, I'd tell you. It's not wrong." >>> --- James Harris confirms that his proof is correct. >> >> >> If you want me to see your reply don't snip aus.tv. >> >> Do you interrogate people with English as a second language until >> their sentence is perfect grammar and a direct precise answer? >> >> Will he resign? -> Man about the house?? > > It was "man of the house". You can interpret that as either: > > He will resign and hence be a man of his house > > or > > He is the man of the house of BP and that won't change. > > But, never mind. We'll take your interpretation. If the CEO does not > resign by the end of the year, then you are mistaken about your powers. > >> You seriously don't get it? > > I seriously see that these answers are ambiguous. How come your sources > of perfect information cannot say more precisely than 9-11? Three > months? I was thinking about it from an "information theory" point of view not long ago. For each question, we can associate a random variable. We could have the r.v.s X1, X2, X3 and X4 for queries one to four, respectively. A sensible domain for the answers to each is easy to figure out: Q1: {1, 2, 3, ... 365} standing for day numbers in 2010 from January 1st to December 31st. Q2: { yes, no}, or {1, 0}. // assuming CEO Tony Hayward [and nothing about Chairman]. Q3: {"n" millions of euros, present day value: 1<=n<= 10^6 } and/or {"m" millions of US dollars, present day value: 1<=m<= 10^6 } [ may be extended to Z\ Z^{+}, on account of future benefice]. Q4: {4, 5, 6, 7, 8, ... 1000}, 4 <--> April 2010. X1, X2, X3 and X4 can't be expected to be uncorrelated. The maximum uncertainty corresponds 10 equal "a priori" probability p, for each of the 365x2x997x1000000 = 727810000000 with p = 1/727810000000, about 0.000000000001374. That's 39.4 bits of entropy, but 20 bits comes from the number of millions of euros in costs, from 0 to about 2^20 --> 20 bits. A better measure is log_{10} (costs), costs in millions of dollars of euros. That way, in the "arithmetic of ratios" begun by Napier, answers in a integer power of 1.0001 don't depend to much on the currency, except Zimbabwe and other high-inflation currencies. Assuming tolerance for +/- 10% on costs, 8 months of interest, two yes/no questions, there's a least 8 relevant bits, which translates to <= 8 bits of entropy for "decent" answers, useful in business, planning, fortune telling, scoops, and so on. David Bernier
From: |-|ercules on 13 Jun 2010 04:47
"David Bernier" <david250(a)videotron.ca> wrote > Jesse F. Hughes wrote: >> Graham Cooper<grahamcooper7(a)gmail.com> writes: >> >>> On Jun 5, 11:22 pm, "Jesse F. Hughes"<je...(a)phiwumbda.org> wrote: >>>> "|-|ercules"<radgray...(a)yahoo.com> writes: >>>>> "Ostap Bender"<ostap_bender_1...(a)hotmail.com> wrote >>>>>>>> Ask anything you want-to-know >>>>>>>> [...] >>>> >>>>>>>> Ok. About the Gulf of Mexico B.P. related oil spill: >>>>>>>> - Will Florida be affected by the end of 2010? >>>> >>>>> 2001 (close!) >>>> >>>> So, no answer? >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>>>>> - Will the Chairman or CEO resign this year? >>>> >>>>> Man Of The House (million to one answer for this question) >>>> >>>> Does it mean yes or no? And does it apply to the chairman or the CEO? >>>> >>>>>>>> - How much will it cost B.P.? >>>> >>>>> Budget is small (million to one answer for this question) >>>> >>>> So, no real answer? I guess this means it won't cost BP much. How >>>> much is much? >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>>>>> - When will oil stop pouring into the water (what month) ? >>>> >>>>> 9 - 11 (million to one answer for this question) >>>> >>>> Does this mean that it will stop sometime between Sept. and Nov., or >>>> does this mean it will stop on Sept. 11? >>>> >>>> -- >>>> "Sorry, wakeup to the real world. You're on your own dependent on me >>>> as your guide. Luckily for you, I'm self-correcting to a large extent, >>>> so if the proof were wrong, I'd tell you. It's not wrong." >>>> --- James Harris confirms that his proof is correct. >>> >>> >>> If you want me to see your reply don't snip aus.tv. >>> >>> Do you interrogate people with English as a second language until >>> their sentence is perfect grammar and a direct precise answer? >>> >>> Will he resign? -> Man about the house?? >> >> It was "man of the house". You can interpret that as either: >> >> He will resign and hence be a man of his house >> >> or >> >> He is the man of the house of BP and that won't change. >> >> But, never mind. We'll take your interpretation. If the CEO does not >> resign by the end of the year, then you are mistaken about your powers. >> >>> You seriously don't get it? >> >> I seriously see that these answers are ambiguous. How come your sources >> of perfect information cannot say more precisely than 9-11? Three >> months? > > I was thinking about it from an "information theory" point of > view not long ago. > > For each question, we can associate a random variable. > We could have the r.v.s X1, X2, X3 and X4 for > queries one to four, respectively. > > A sensible domain for the answers to each is > easy to figure out: > Q1: {1, 2, 3, ... 365} standing for day numbers in 2010 > from January 1st to December 31st. > > Q2: { yes, no}, or {1, 0}. > // assuming CEO Tony Hayward [and nothing about Chairman]. > > Q3: {"n" millions of euros, present day value: 1<=n<= 10^6 } and/or > {"m" millions of US dollars, present day value: 1<=m<= 10^6 } > [ may be extended to Z\ Z^{+}, on account of future benefice]. > > Q4: {4, 5, 6, 7, 8, ... 1000}, 4 <--> April 2010. > > X1, X2, X3 and X4 can't be expected to be uncorrelated. > The maximum uncertainty corresponds 10 equal > "a priori" probability p, for each of the > 365x2x997x1000000 = 727810000000 > with p = 1/727810000000, > about 0.000000000001374. > > That's 39.4 bits of entropy, but 20 bits comes from the number of > millions of euros in costs, from 0 to about 2^20 --> 20 bits. > > A better measure is log_{10} (costs), costs in millions > of dollars of euros. That way, in the "arithmetic of ratios" > begun by Napier, answers in a integer power of 1.0001 > don't depend to much on the currency, except > Zimbabwe and other high-inflation currencies. > > Assuming tolerance for +/- 10% on costs, > 8 months of interest, two yes/no questions, > there's a least 8 relevant bits, which > translates to <= 8 bits of entropy for > "decent" answers, useful in business, planning, > fortune telling, scoops, and so on. > > David Bernier That's an advanced analysis, but my yes/no answers establish themselves with more than 1 bit of evidence. Will X be sacked? "Man of the house" (my finger landed directly on that phrase) I didn't break 1 in 2 odds here, getting that answer is better than guessing RED on a roulette table. Despite Jesse's feigned ignorance what the answer means, you could flip a newspaper page 1,000 times and neither of you will get a more direct answer. So as well as an entropy analysis of the expected answers, the information given in the responses that was in context adds to the score. Herc |