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From: John Jones on 25 Feb 2010 17:45
Pentcho Valev wrote:
> What is the probability that Mr. X looks like Mr. Y? Clearly the prior
> (Mr. X and Mr. Y are identified but there is no additional information
> concerning them) probability is virtually zero. This means that for
> the argument:
>
> Premise: Mr. X and Mr. Y are identical twins.
> Conclusion: Mr. X looks like Mr. Y.
>
> the combination "false premise, true conclusion" is virtually
> impossible.
>
> Consider an oversimplified version of the Carnot theorem:
>
> Premise: Heat is an indestructible substance (cannot be converted into
> work in the heat engine).
> Conclusion (prototype of the second law of thermodynamics): The heat
> engine X working between the temperatures T1 and T2 is just as
> efficient as the heat engine Y working between the same temperatures.
>
> The premise turned out to be false in the end. Is the prior
> probability of the conclusion virtually zero? Is the combination
> "false premise, true conclusion" virtually impossible?
>
> Pentcho Valev
> pvalev(a)yahoo.com
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