The 30-th of March is the most probable day of Dangerous Droplet creation. The 1-st of April is the most probable day of our total startto stars.
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From: Sam Wormley on 17 Mar 2010 13:03 On 3/17/10 11:48 AM, Magnetic wrote: > I give 50% probability that CERN will explode the Earth in a couple > of > weeks. The 30-th of March it will collide protons with the energy > 2*3.5 TeV. > The 30-th of March is the most probable day of Dangerous Droplet > creation. > The 1-st of April is the most probable day of our total start to > stars. > Your statistical track record should be telling you something!
From: Richard Dobson on 18 Mar 2010 05:32
On 18/03/2010 08:27, Magnetic wrote: .. > > I give 50% probability that CERN will explode the Earth in a couple of > weeks. The 30-th of March it will collide protons with the energy > 2*3.5 TeV. > The 30-th of March is the most probable day of Dangerous Droplet > creation. > The 1-st of April is the most probable day of our total start to > stars. > OK, let's cut to the chase here: this is a question of odds - let's say, 2 to 1. How about this - a wager? Demonstrate in hard cash the strength of your conviction. Sadly I have no money at all, but if I did it would run as follows: if the world does blow up, I would endeavor to send you $500. If it does not, you undertake to send me $1000. Or �1000, whichever is the greater. Do you think that would be a good bet from your point of view? Ladbroke's, or any similarly gargantuan bookie, may offer even better odds "against". If the world does blow up, they would send you a ~lot~ of money; but if it doesn't, you must be prepared to send the same doubled, so I can celebrate the non-end-of-the-world with as many people as possible. You can pay me via PayPal. Let's nominate April 1st as "World Survival Day" and have a global party! Richard Dobson |