Climate models suck - It's the programming
in [Cobol]
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From: Pete Dashwood on 21 Jan 2010 17:29 HeyBub wrote: > Pete Dashwood wrote: >>> >>> It's difficult. It's difficult because man is a "pack animal" and is >>> compelled innately to be a member of a group. >>> >>> The need, nay, the necessity, to belong to a herd is what drives >>> devotees of Manchester United to do silly things, it explains >>> nationalism, religious extremism, and maybe even stamp collecting. >>> >>> People who hate Negros will root for them nevertheless if they are >>> players on the home team. Descendants of both Irish Catholics and >>> Irish Protestants will defend each other when sharing a foxhole. >> >> That is a beautifully expressed paragraph. >>> >>> The urge to bond and defend your group against all others is a >>> survival mechanism and deeply ingrained in the lizard brain. >> >> Not sure about that. Lizards are not gregarious... :-) >> >> I think it might have more to do with raising children, where there >> is more safety in numbers. The more like-minded adults around, the >> better chance the young have of surviving. >> >>> It >>> cannot be denied. The best that can be done is to bend it to a >>> larger group and an example of that is the military where all races >>> serve in (mostly) harmony. >>> Of course the faggots better not try to join... >> >> :-) >> >> Jerry, I generally enjoy your posts and appreciate your wry humour, >> and comon sense, even if I don't always agree with your position. >> >> This is a very nice piece of writing. Thanks for posting it. >> > > As for "lizard brain," I meant the Limbic System. As we know, the > Limbic System is responsible for the four "F's": Fight, Flight, > Feeding, and Reproduction. > > And you're correct about the "safety/strength in numbers." If there > is a switch in the brain somewhere that got flipped once upon a time > to encourage group bonding, that bonding would prove evolutionarily > beneficial; The "switch" would stand a better chance of being passed > on than the "loner" switch. > > Consider dogs. Dogs are pack animals and the survival of the "pack" > works best when all the members simultaneously attack the prey or the > enemy. (That's why yappy lap dogs get gobbled up by 'gators in > Florida so easily - damned pooches run right up to the reptile's > mouth and try to bark the one-ton lizard into submission. Zip! Right > down the hatch. The dogs can't help it - they were wired that way.) > > In my view, an awful lot of human inclinations can be laid at the > doorstep of biology. I agree. I'm currently reading Richard ("The God Delusion") Dawkins' latest book "The Greatest Show on Earth". He is primarily a Natural Historian who got pretty pissed off with Creationists and Fundamentalists undermining his life's work. Sometimes his frustration boils over, but mostly his books are extremely logical, well informed and readable. He shows in easily understandable language how Evolution has made us (and a number of other species) what we are over a VERY long period of time. Whatever religious views a person has, it is very interesting reading. (I was really hooked after his explanation in "The God Delusion" as to why moths spiral into lamps and candles...fascinating.) Pete. -- "I used to write COBOL...now I can do anything."
From: Pete Dashwood on 21 Jan 2010 17:45 Charles Hottel wrote: >>> "Pete Dashwood" <dashwood(a)removethis.enternet.co.nz> wrote in >>> message >> Actually, Charlie, I'm a bit disappointed with Kurzweil. >> >> The guy is certainly brilliant but some of this "GNR" technology is >> simply not being delivered. He claims Mitsubishi have a patent for >> nanotechnology and have had working nanobots for over 10 years now. >> >> Yet people are still having to donate blood to keep kids alive and >> arteriosclerosis is still life threatening, when nanobots could be >> cleaning up our arteries and doing the general job of blood. I can't >> see whether the technology is being suppressed by the God Squad or >> "commercial interests", but either way it is long overdue... >> >> I have a friend who has nine stents keeping him alive. He has to >> inject himself with insulin and some other medication 4 times a day. >> Nanotechnology could completely transform his life, but where is it? >> >> Stem cell research is being stifled by religious convictions, 40 >> percent of Americans believe the world was created by God within the >> last 10,000 years (in some countries this belief is even higher), it >> just looks like Science is losing the battle and Reason is being >> supplanted by Darkness. Some days I'm actually glad to be old... >> >> Pete. >> -- >> "I used to write COBOL...now I can do anything." >> > > I posted this because I think Kurzweil is at least worth listening > to. I am sure he has studied this more than I have. No one > predicting the future is going to be right all of the time. From his > 'Singularity" book I rather expect more results coming out from > biotechnology before we get results from nanotechnology, though some > overlap will occur. I receive the KurzweilAI.net Daily Newsletter > and while it is difficult to keep up with all the research advances, > I have noticed regular claims of improvement in solar cell efficiency. > > I am not saying he is right or that he is wrong, which is why I am not > responding to HeyBub. I have no interest in defending Kurzweil and > arguing with HeyBub is pointless anyway. > > I have not heard the claims about Mitsubishi, but if it is true, the > only reason I can think of, for them not delivering the technology, > would be because there is somehow more money (profit) in not > releasing it. This seems counterintuitive because that technology is > certain to be a big money maker. I am sure your friend would be > willing to pay a lot to be restored to good health even if he had to > spend some portion of those extra years working to pay off the cost. > > Stem cell research has been slowed but progress is still being made > and ways are being found that do not require fetal stem cells. > > The earth used to be flat and also the center of the universe but some > progress has been made. Actually since everthing in the universe > came out of a volume smaller than an atom I guess some argument could > be made that everything everywhere is (was) the center of the > universe. > I am sure it is warmer there than here so go outside and enjoy the > sun and have a cool drink or anything else that might cheer you up. Thanks Charlie, I took your advice... :-) It is 28C here today. We had rain overnight but skies are clearing and blue is breaking through. Unfortunately, I have committed to doing some work so I will do that, but at least I can enjoy the sun while I do it :-) I DO feel sorry when I look around and see cases like the friend I mentioned, where the solution is "just around the corner" but it seems to be taking for ever to come into view. I may be oversensitive to this because my father (who my Mother and I both adored) died from heart problems in 1957 (at the age of 46...) and a few months after he died a technique was perfected that could have helped him. By 1960, bypass was available and could have saved his life. Them's the breaks... I guess we just have to deal with it. Pete. -- "I used to write COBOL...now I can do anything."
From: Charles Hottel on 21 Jan 2010 22:33 "Howard Brazee" <howard(a)brazee.net> wrote in message news:rbvgl5phjh3bv2qdgb1a94iqu6f9g6troi(a)4ax.com... > On Thu, 21 Jan 2010 16:47:21 +1300, "Pete Dashwood" > <dashwood(a)removethis.enternet.co.nz> wrote: > >>That's why I believe Democracy, while not being a perfect form of >>Government, is the only one that guarantees freedom. > > There are no such guarantees in life. > > -- > "In no part of the constitution is more wisdom to be found, > than in the clause which confides the question of war or peace > to the legislature, and not to the executive department." > > - James Madison As of today's supreme court decision we are guaranteed that corporations can buy and sell our polititions.
From: Charles Hottel on 21 Jan 2010 23:31 "Pete Dashwood" <dashwood(a)removethis.enternet.co.nz> wrote in message news:7rs3ofF9jbU1(a)mid.individual.net... > Charles Hottel wrote: >>>> "Pete Dashwood" <dashwood(a)removethis.enternet.co.nz> wrote in >>>> message >>> Actually, Charlie, I'm a bit disappointed with Kurzweil. >>> >>> The guy is certainly brilliant but some of this "GNR" technology is >>> simply not being delivered. He claims Mitsubishi have a patent for >>> nanotechnology and have had working nanobots for over 10 years now. >>> >>> Yet people are still having to donate blood to keep kids alive and >>> arteriosclerosis is still life threatening, when nanobots could be >>> cleaning up our arteries and doing the general job of blood. I can't >>> see whether the technology is being suppressed by the God Squad or >>> "commercial interests", but either way it is long overdue... >>> >>> I have a friend who has nine stents keeping him alive. He has to >>> inject himself with insulin and some other medication 4 times a day. >>> Nanotechnology could completely transform his life, but where is it? >>> >>> Stem cell research is being stifled by religious convictions, 40 >>> percent of Americans believe the world was created by God within the >>> last 10,000 years (in some countries this belief is even higher), it >>> just looks like Science is losing the battle and Reason is being >>> supplanted by Darkness. Some days I'm actually glad to be old... >>> >>> Pete. >>> -- >>> "I used to write COBOL...now I can do anything." >>> >> >> I posted this because I think Kurzweil is at least worth listening >> to. I am sure he has studied this more than I have. No one >> predicting the future is going to be right all of the time. From his >> 'Singularity" book I rather expect more results coming out from >> biotechnology before we get results from nanotechnology, though some >> overlap will occur. I receive the KurzweilAI.net Daily Newsletter >> and while it is difficult to keep up with all the research advances, >> I have noticed regular claims of improvement in solar cell efficiency. >> >> I am not saying he is right or that he is wrong, which is why I am not >> responding to HeyBub. I have no interest in defending Kurzweil and >> arguing with HeyBub is pointless anyway. >> >> I have not heard the claims about Mitsubishi, but if it is true, the >> only reason I can think of, for them not delivering the technology, >> would be because there is somehow more money (profit) in not >> releasing it. This seems counterintuitive because that technology is >> certain to be a big money maker. I am sure your friend would be >> willing to pay a lot to be restored to good health even if he had to >> spend some portion of those extra years working to pay off the cost. >> >> Stem cell research has been slowed but progress is still being made >> and ways are being found that do not require fetal stem cells. >> >> The earth used to be flat and also the center of the universe but some >> progress has been made. Actually since everthing in the universe >> came out of a volume smaller than an atom I guess some argument could >> be made that everything everywhere is (was) the center of the >> universe. >> I am sure it is warmer there than here so go outside and enjoy the >> sun and have a cool drink or anything else that might cheer you up. > > Thanks Charlie, I took your advice... :-) > > It is 28C here today. We had rain overnight but skies are clearing and > blue is breaking through. > > Unfortunately, I have committed to doing some work so I will do that, but > at least I can enjoy the sun while I do it :-) > > I DO feel sorry when I look around and see cases like the friend I > mentioned, where the solution is "just around the corner" but it seems to > be taking for ever to come into view. I may be oversensitive to this > because my father (who my Mother and I both adored) died from heart > problems in 1957 (at the age of 46...) and a few months after he died a > technique was perfected that could have helped him. By 1960, bypass was > available and could have saved his life. > > Them's the breaks... > > I guess we just have to deal with it. > > Pete. > -- > "I used to write COBOL...now I can do anything." > Well that is very understandable. Kurzweil feels/thinks that a few in our generation may live to benefit from these advances. That is why he wrote "Fantastic Voyage" and he is certaianly taking all the steps he can to try and become one of the ones to benefit. The sad reality is that most of our generation will not benefit. There is no worse, helpless feeling than to know that someone or something you love is dying and that there is nothing you can do about it. Years can pass and still the feelings remain. For some I think the only way to end the feelings are when death comes at last. Kurzweil likes to focus on the positive. He says think what 2000 top scientists could come up with if their brains worked at computer speeds and never became tired. But technology is not often a neutral thing, it is most often a two edged sword with downsides as well as upsides. Besides getting a better Einstein we may get a worse Hitler or Stalin. What if these AI intellegences get into a power struggle. We humans are a multi faceted and a curious mixture (for want of a better term) of good and evil. Not only the good will be modified but the evil as well. Maybe I should use 'healthy and ill' tendencies instead. Will AI intellegence process so fast that communication with unenhanced humans will be frustrating for them? Will their pride in ther abilities be such that they devalue unenhanced humans? Maybe they will think our atoms are of better use in constructing new, more powerful computer intelligences. Kurzweil thinks that because they start off based on us they will feel a kinship to us, but how many of the smartest and most accomplished of us now feel a close kinship with the less brillant and less accomplished. It seems that our differences divide us more than connect us and AI may magnify this. Kurzweil thinks we have a 50-50 chance of surviving. I am more pessimestic. One reason nuclear technology has not yet been used to wipe us out is that it is very hard to develop. This could still change and may soon if Israel attacks Iran in the near future. Biotechnology which could wipe us out will be much easier to develop. Nanotechnology accidents of runaway replication could turn the earth to goo. There are too many fanatics who think that their religion is the only one true way to God and they are more than willing to wipe out everyone on the face of the earth who does not agree with them. They may envision a scenario where they have an antidote for themselves and release a biological agent to wipe out the nonbelievers, but then a mutation occurs an poof humans are history. There will be a race between the defenders and the destroyers of humanity just as today there is a race between those who creat computer malware and those who defend us against it. The first county to develop nanotechnology weapons could pre-deploy them all over the world and with a single command wipe out everything in a specified geographic area. The idea of the singularity and all of the potential issues involved seems to me to be highly complex and by no means is the outcome clear. Instead of Artifical Intelligence we need Artificial Wisdom and /or Artificial Spiritual Machines, otherwise our lack of emotional and impulse control may be the end of us. Technology that becomes so powerful as to resemble magic requires advanced wisdom to control it use (or possibly mor often to decide not to use it). I am reminded of an old science fiction film where we travel to mars and the aliens tell us that we are technological teenages but spiritual infants. One thing that evolution shows is that most species eventually go extinct. Our intelligence may wipe us out or it may save us for a while, but eventually it looks like the universe will have a way to get us in the end. PBS and the history channel have had many shows on how this might happen. We may overcome some of them but it seems unlikely that we can overcome all of them. I guess the fact that the probablity of our continuance is not zero is a reason for some hope.
From: Pete Dashwood on 22 Jan 2010 06:52
Charles Hottel wrote: > "Howard Brazee" <howard(a)brazee.net> wrote in message > news:rbvgl5phjh3bv2qdgb1a94iqu6f9g6troi(a)4ax.com... >> On Thu, 21 Jan 2010 16:47:21 +1300, "Pete Dashwood" >> <dashwood(a)removethis.enternet.co.nz> wrote: >> >>> That's why I believe Democracy, while not being a perfect form of >>> Government, is the only one that guarantees freedom. >> >> There are no such guarantees in life. >> >> -- >> "In no part of the constitution is more wisdom to be found, >> than in the clause which confides the question of war or peace >> to the legislature, and not to the executive department." >> >> - James Madison > > As of today's supreme court decision we are guaranteed that > corporations can buy and sell our polititions. Commerce has ALWAYS bought political influence, right back to Babylonian and Assyrian times. The difference is that now you know about it... :-) Pete. -- "I used to write COBOL...now I can do anything." |