"Independent Thinking" vs Appeal To Authority In Science
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From: Bruce Richmond on 18 Jul 2010 13:53 On Jul 17, 10:19 pm, Bruce Richmond <bsr3...(a)my-deja.com> wrote: > On Jul 17, 12:22 pm, hersheyh <hershe...(a)yahoo.com> wrote: > > > > > > > On Jul 17, 11:26 am, Marvin the Martian <mar...(a)ontomars.org> wrote: > > > > On Fri, 16 Jul 2010 09:24:55 -0700, Bret Cahill wrote: > > > >> < snip far left anti-American political rant > > > > > > This is what was snipped by the winger dinger: > > > > Wow. A childish, immature and irrelevant argumentum ad hominem that shows > > > that you're politically motivated (you desire a nanny state and want to > > > suckle off Uncle Sam's hairy teats), immature, and have a low level of > > > intelligence. > > > > < snip the bad analogy fallacy comparing prisons to science in arguing > > > why everyone should stop thinking and listen to (socialist) authorities.> > > > > First of all, your silly analogy fails. Prisons are not science. Science > > > is observation, hypothesis, test the hypothesis, and accept or reject the > > > hypothesis based on the results of the test. It is a continuous process. > > > A well known example is classical mechanics; it was tested and proven to > > > be a useful theory up until the beginning of the 20th century, when it > > > began to fail. Then new theories, like QM and SR, were developed to > > > predict where CM failed. > > > > AS science goes, AGW is a fail. The predictions of the late 1990s failed > > > to predict the non-warming of the next decade. In science, that is called > > > "the rejected hypothesis". Further, Svensmark keyed on the stronger > > > correlation between solar cycle and climate change and found the physical > > > mechanism and verified his theory at CERN. His theory not only explains > > > climate change for the last 4 billion years, but the hemispherical > > > effects of climate change, the solar correlation, and the observed > > > climate change on other planets that AGW fails to predict. The increase > > > in CO2 is then explained by simple chemistry: a warmer ocean holds less > > > CO2 and dissolves more carbonate into CO2. CO2 is an EFFECT, not a cause, > > > of warming. At this point, one applies Occam's Razor. > > > What exactly, then, if the observed increase in CO2 in the atmosphere > > is due to the release of carbon from the ocean, makes *all* the > > gigatons of anthropogenically-generated CO2 disappear from the > > atmosphere? The usual estimates of the amount of CO2 produced > > anthropogenically comes up with numbers that are *larger* than (about > > double) the observed amount from anthropogenic sources (leading to the > > idea that the "missing" anthropogenic CO2 is being absorbed by the > > oceans, which are the only sink with sufficiently fast rate of uptake > > and capacity). Now you are saying that the oceans are not the sink > > for the missing part of the amount of anthropogenically produced CO2, > > but actually is the *source* of the observed increase in atmospheric > > CO2. If that is so, where did *all* the anthropogenic CO2 produced > > during the industrial age go? It's missing! It had to go somewhere. > > Should we put out a missing gas announcement? Where is it? > > This graph shows that the level of atmospheric co2 in a large part is > controlled by the global temperature, most likely due to the > absorption and expelling of co2 from the surface layer of the ocean. > > http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/isolate:60/mean:12/scale:0.... > > As you say, the ocean must be absorbing the "missing" anthropogenic > co2, but it also must be passing it on to some other sink. The > atmospheric co2 and co2 in solution stay in equilibrium at a constant > temperature. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonic_acid > > "At a given temperature, the composition of a pure carbonic acid > solution (or of a pure CO2 solution) is completely determined by the > partial pressure of carbon dioxide above the solution." > > As the ocean warms it cannot hold as much co2 so it starts expelling > co2 into the atmosphere, causing the atmospheric co2 to go up. The > old equilibrium between the air and water doesn't apply any more > because the temperature changed. As the ocean cools it can absorb > more co2 out of the air, causing atmospheric co2 to decline. In both > cases the change in atmospheric co2 lags behind the temperature change > because it takes time for the temp change to work its way down from > the surface. This is all in complete agreement with the empirical > data used to construct the graph. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Co2 > > "In the oceans > There is about fifty times as much carbon dissolved in the sea water > of the oceans in the form of CO2 and carbonic acid, bicarbonate and > carbonate ions as exists in the atmosphere." > > With the ocean holding fifty times as much carbon as the atmosphere, > its temperture driven ability to hold co2 overwhelms the atmosphere. > Very small fluctuations in ocean temp can cause significant changes in > atmospheric co2, both up and down. So it is not acting as a sink so > much as a buffer based on its thermal mass. > > Where did the "missing" anthropogenic co2 go? When co2 is disolved in > water it makes carbonic acid. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonic_acid > > "Carbonic acid is the organic compound with the formula H2CO3 > (equivalently OC(OH)2). It is also a name sometimes given to solutions > of carbon dioxide in water, which contain small amounts of H2CO3. The > salts of carbonic acids are called bicarbonates (or hydrogen > carbonates) and carbonates. It is a weak acid. When dissolved in > water, carbon dioxide exists in equilibrium with carbonic acid:" > > I'm not going to go into great detail here but it is obvious there are > many carbonates that can be formed when the carbonic acid reacts with > various chemicals. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonate > > "In geology and mineralogy, the term "carbonate" can refer both to > carbonate minerals and carbonate rock (which is made of chiefly > carbonate minerals), and both are dominated by the carbonate ion, > CO2-3. Carbonate minerals are extremely varied and ubiquitous in > chemically-precipitated sedimentary rock. The most common are calcite > or calcium carbonate, CaCO3, the chief constituent of limestone (as > well as the main component of mollusc shells and coral skeletons); > dolomite, a calcium-magnesium carbonate CaMg(CO3)2; and siderite, or > iron (II) carbonate, FeCO3, an important iron ore. Sodium carbonate > ("soda" or "natron") and potassium carbonate ("potash") have been used > since antiquity for cleaning and preservation, as well as for the > manufacture of glass. Carbonates are widely used in industry, e.g. in > iron smelting, as a raw material for Portland cement and lime > manufacture, in the composition of ceramic glazes, and more." > > "Most carbonate salts are insoluble in water at standard temperature > and pressure, with solubility constants of less than 1×10-8. > Exceptions include sodium, potassium and ammonium carbonates, as well > as many uranium carbonates." > > Whenever a carbonate is formed it changes the equilibrium between co2 > and carbonic acid, so a co2 molecule must convert to cabonic acid to > restore the equilibrium. For a given temp, when enough co2 molecules > have converted to carbonic acid it upsets the equilibrium between co2 > in the air and water, so a co2 molocule must be absorbed into the > water to restore the balance. > > So the true carbon sink isn't the ocean water as is often claimed, but > the carbonates that are formed, often to precipitate out.- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - I see hersheyh has posted to this group since this was posted. How about a comment to show that it wasn't a total waste of time explaining this to you.
From: hersheyh on 18 Jul 2010 13:54 On Jul 17, 10:19 pm, Bruce Richmond <bsr3...(a)my-deja.com> wrote: > On Jul 17, 12:22 pm, hersheyh <hershe...(a)yahoo.com> wrote: > > > > > > > On Jul 17, 11:26 am, Marvin the Martian <mar...(a)ontomars.org> wrote: > > > > On Fri, 16 Jul 2010 09:24:55 -0700, Bret Cahill wrote: > > > >> < snip far left anti-American political rant > > > > > > This is what was snipped by the winger dinger: > > > > Wow. A childish, immature and irrelevant argumentum ad hominem that shows > > > that you're politically motivated (you desire a nanny state and want to > > > suckle off Uncle Sam's hairy teats), immature, and have a low level of > > > intelligence. > > > > < snip the bad analogy fallacy comparing prisons to science in arguing > > > why everyone should stop thinking and listen to (socialist) authorities.> > > > > First of all, your silly analogy fails. Prisons are not science. Science > > > is observation, hypothesis, test the hypothesis, and accept or reject the > > > hypothesis based on the results of the test. It is a continuous process. > > > A well known example is classical mechanics; it was tested and proven to > > > be a useful theory up until the beginning of the 20th century, when it > > > began to fail. Then new theories, like QM and SR, were developed to > > > predict where CM failed. > > > > AS science goes, AGW is a fail. The predictions of the late 1990s failed > > > to predict the non-warming of the next decade. In science, that is called > > > "the rejected hypothesis". Further, Svensmark keyed on the stronger > > > correlation between solar cycle and climate change and found the physical > > > mechanism and verified his theory at CERN. His theory not only explains > > > climate change for the last 4 billion years, but the hemispherical > > > effects of climate change, the solar correlation, and the observed > > > climate change on other planets that AGW fails to predict. The increase > > > in CO2 is then explained by simple chemistry: a warmer ocean holds less > > > CO2 and dissolves more carbonate into CO2. CO2 is an EFFECT, not a cause, > > > of warming. At this point, one applies Occam's Razor. > > > What exactly, then, if the observed increase in CO2 in the atmosphere > > is due to the release of carbon from the ocean, makes *all* the > > gigatons of anthropogenically-generated CO2 disappear from the > > atmosphere? The usual estimates of the amount of CO2 produced > > anthropogenically comes up with numbers that are *larger* than (about > > double) the observed amount from anthropogenic sources (leading to the > > idea that the "missing" anthropogenic CO2 is being absorbed by the > > oceans, which are the only sink with sufficiently fast rate of uptake > > and capacity). Now you are saying that the oceans are not the sink > > for the missing part of the amount of anthropogenically produced CO2, > > but actually is the *source* of the observed increase in atmospheric > > CO2. If that is so, where did *all* the anthropogenic CO2 produced > > during the industrial age go? It's missing! It had to go somewhere. > > Should we put out a missing gas announcement? Where is it? > > This graph shows that the level of atmospheric co2 in a large part is > controlled by the global temperature, most likely due to the > absorption and expelling of co2 from the surface layer of the ocean. > > http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/isolate:60/mean:12/scale:0.... There is an annual cycle to CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Not surprisingly, the CO2 low is in late summer and the high is in late winter in the Northern hemisphere and is due to the different rates of uptake and outgo due to the growing season. Fossil fuel CO2 is an addition to this cycle. > > As you say, the ocean must be absorbing the "missing" anthropogenic > co2, but it also must be passing it on to some other sink. What possible sink does the anthropogenic CO2 have access to that other CO2 in the atmosphere and ocean does not? You still have not explained how one can keep on adding CO2 from a source that takes a very long time to accumulate (fossil fuels) without that having any effect nor how the ocean can get more acidic (or less basic, if you prefer) at the same time it is acting as the CO2 source for the *increased* CO2 since the industrial revolution. Your argument simply does not add up. > The > atmospheric co2 and co2 in solution stay in equilibrium at a constant > temperature. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonic_acid Yes. And more atmospheric CO2 means more oceanic CO2, just as higher temperature in the water means less CO2. However, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere clearly is the more important driver of the equilibrium change because we can see that the pH change (and change in the saturation boundaries) is in the direction expected if oceanic CO2 levels were *increasing* and not in the direction expected if oceanic CO2 levels were dropping. That is, the level of CO2 is increasing in *both* the atmosphere and ocean. It is not decreasing in the ocean and increasing in the atmosphere. > "At a given temperature, the composition of a pure carbonic acid > solution (or of a pure CO2 solution) is completely determined by the > partial pressure of carbon dioxide above the solution." > > As the ocean warms it cannot hold as much co2 so it starts expelling > co2 into the atmosphere, causing the atmospheric co2 to go up. The > old equilibrium between the air and water doesn't apply any more > because the temperature changed. As the ocean cools it can absorb > more co2 out of the air, causing atmospheric co2 to decline. In both > cases the change in atmospheric co2 lags behind the temperature change > because it takes time for the temp change to work its way down from > the surface. This is all in complete agreement with the empirical > data used to construct the graph. Like I said. That can certainly be true. However, we are not seeing that. Instead we are seeing an increase in *both* atmospheric and ocean CO2 levels. That is what would be expected if the atmospheric CO2 levels were increasing because of input CO2 from some non-oceanic source, like, say, fossil fuel use. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Co2 > > "In the oceans > There is about fifty times as much carbon dissolved in the sea water > of the oceans in the form of CO2 and carbonic acid, bicarbonate and > carbonate ions as exists in the atmosphere." > > With the ocean holding fifty times as much carbon as the atmosphere, > its temperture driven ability to hold co2 overwhelms the atmosphere. > Very small fluctuations in ocean temp can cause significant changes in > atmospheric co2, both up and down. So it is not acting as a sink so > much as a buffer based on its thermal mass. Again, the evidence points to the oceans currently acting as a CO2 sink for the anthropogenic CO2, not as a net source of atmospheric CO2. That is because the amount of CO2 is *increasing* in both atmosphere and ocean (as indicated by measurement of the atmosphere and the pH change in the oceans). Maybe at some point the ocean will be unable to absorb any more atmospheric CO2. But that time is not now. > Where did the "missing" anthropogenic co2 go? When co2 is disolved in > water it makes carbonic acid. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonic_acid Yes. Why do you think that the oceans are becoming more acidic (less basic)? Because the oceans are absorbing more CO2 because there is more CO2 in the atmosphere. > > "Carbonic acid is the organic compound with the formula H2CO3 > (equivalently OC(OH)2). It is also a name sometimes given to solutions > of carbon dioxide in water, which contain small amounts of H2CO3. The > salts of carbonic acids are called bicarbonates (or hydrogen > carbonates) and carbonates. It is a weak acid. When dissolved in > water, carbon dioxide exists in equilibrium with carbonic acid:" > > I'm not going to go into great detail here but it is obvious there are > many carbonates that can be formed when the carbonic acid reacts with > various chemicals. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonate > > "In geology and mineralogy, the term "carbonate" can refer both to > carbonate minerals and carbonate rock (which is made of chiefly > carbonate minerals), and both are dominated by the carbonate ion, > CO2-3. Carbonate minerals are extremely varied and ubiquitous in > chemically-precipitated sedimentary rock. The most common are calcite > or calcium carbonate, CaCO3, the chief constituent of limestone (as > well as the main component of mollusc shells and coral skeletons); > dolomite, a calcium-magnesium carbonate CaMg(CO3)2; and siderite, or > iron (II) carbonate, FeCO3, an important iron ore. Sodium carbonate > ("soda" or "natron") and potassium carbonate ("potash") have been used > since antiquity for cleaning and preservation, as well as for the > manufacture of glass. Carbonates are widely used in industry, e.g. in > iron smelting, as a raw material for Portland cement and lime > manufacture, in the composition of ceramic glazes, and more." > > "Most carbonate salts are insoluble in water at standard temperature > and pressure, with solubility constants of less than 1×10-8. > Exceptions include sodium, potassium and ammonium carbonates, as well > as many uranium carbonates." > > Whenever a carbonate is formed it changes the equilibrium between co2 > and carbonic acid, so a co2 molecule must convert to cabonic acid to > restore the equilibrium. For a given temp, when enough co2 molecules > have converted to carbonic acid it upsets the equilibrium between co2 > in the air and water, so a co2 molocule must be absorbed into the > water to restore the balance. > > So the true carbon sink isn't the ocean water as is often claimed, but > the carbonates that are formed, often to precipitate out. The net rate of CO2 getting converted to CaCO3s is quite slow. It is a biological process that, depending on the particular species, produces aragonite or calcite shells and maintains them over the life of the organism. At death, a *small* fraction gets buried under either more CO3 shells or in the muck (many protist shells fall below the saturation line and dissolve; the deep ocean deposits are not limestones). This occurs only very slowly and only on the continental shelves or atoll regions. There is no rain of chemically produced CaCO3 occurring in the oceans (except in a few shallow tidal regions) even in areas where there is supersaturation for CaCO3s.
From: Bret Cahill on 18 Jul 2010 13:56 Unless you have some theory on how the slight increase of temperature each year triggers a release and/or formation of giga tons of CO2 / year . . . Now it is true that massive amounts of methane will be released at the tundra melts. Bret Cahill
From: hersheyh on 18 Jul 2010 14:11 On Jul 18, 1:50 am, Marvin the Martian <mar...(a)ontomars.org> wrote: > On Sat, 17 Jul 2010 09:22:37 -0700, hersheyh wrote: > > On Jul 17, 11:26 am, Marvin the Martian <mar...(a)ontomars.org> wrote: > >> On Fri, 16 Jul 2010 09:24:55 -0700, Bret Cahill wrote: > >> >> < snip far left anti-American political rant > > > >> > This is what was snipped by the winger dinger: > > >> Wow. A childish, immature and irrelevant argumentum ad hominem that > >> shows that you're politically motivated (you desire a nanny state and > >> want to suckle off Uncle Sam's hairy teats), immature, and have a low > >> level of intelligence. > > >> < snip the bad analogy fallacy comparing prisons to science in arguing > >> why everyone should stop thinking and listen to (socialist) > >> authorities.> > > >> First of all, your silly analogy fails. Prisons are not science. > >> Science is observation, hypothesis, test the hypothesis, and accept or > >> reject the hypothesis based on the results of the test. It is a > >> continuous process. A well known example is classical mechanics; it was > >> tested and proven to be a useful theory up until the beginning of the > >> 20th century, when it began to fail. Then new theories, like QM and SR, > >> were developed to predict where CM failed. > > >> AS science goes, AGW is a fail. The predictions of the late 1990s > >> failed to predict the non-warming of the next decade. In science, that > >> is called "the rejected hypothesis". Further, Svensmark keyed on the > >> stronger correlation between solar cycle and climate change and found > >> the physical mechanism and verified his theory at CERN. His theory not > >> only explains climate change for the last 4 billion years, but the > >> hemispherical effects of climate change, the solar correlation, and the > >> observed climate change on other planets that AGW fails to predict. The > >> increase in CO2 is then explained by simple chemistry: a warmer ocean > >> holds less CO2 and dissolves more carbonate into CO2. CO2 is an EFFECT, > >> not a cause, of warming. At this point, one applies Occam's Razor. > > > What exactly, then, if the observed increase in CO2 in the atmosphere is > > due to the release of carbon from the ocean, makes *all* the gigatons of > > anthropogenically-generated CO2 disappear from the atmosphere? The > > usual estimates of the amount of CO2 produced anthropogenically comes up > > with numbers that are *larger* than (about double) the observed amount > > from anthropogenic sources (leading to the idea that the "missing" > > anthropogenic CO2 is being absorbed by the oceans, which are the only > > sink with sufficiently fast rate of uptake and capacity). Now you are > > saying that the oceans are not the sink for the missing part of the > > amount of anthropogenically produced CO2, but actually is the *source* > > of the observed increase in atmospheric CO2. If that is so, where did > > *all* the anthropogenic CO2 produced during the industrial age go? It's > > missing! It had to go somewhere. Should we put out a missing gas > > announcement? Where is it? > > Equilibrium exists because the chemical reaction goes both ways, and when > the two reaction rates are equal, the equilibrium is reached. > > If you add 5.5 GtC to the atmosphere/ocean/Carbonate rock/vegetation > system, most of it will end up in the oceans or vegetation, and very > little will remain in the atmosphere. Actually a new equilibrium will eventually be reached whereby part of the CO2 will remain in the atmosphere, part will increase the level of CO2 in the ocean. The amount of CO2 in vegetation, currently, is decreasing annually as deforestation occurs replacing carbon stored in trees with annual carbon in scrub or grass crops. > But the only thing that can change the ratio of CO2 in the atmosphere to > CO2 in the ocean, or CO2 in the ocean to CO2 in carbonate rocks, is a > temperature increase. If there is no temperature increase, then the > rations will remain the same. This is simple freshmen chemistry. You can change the amount in each pool by dumping a large bolus of CO2 from a source that cannot be replaced into one of the pools. And the rate of uptake by the other pools can range from a few decades (for the upper ocean) to 6000 years or so for deep ocean to even longer for significant carbonate rock formation. > So adding 5.5 GtC That is 5.5 Gt of extra C per year, each and every year, right? > to the entire SYSTEM will have a very small effect on > the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Depends on the number of years that extra C is added. > Raising the temperature of the > earth will shift the equilibrium constants so that more CO2 enters the > water, and more CO2 enters the atmosphere. > > Yes, studies have been done that prove that the C13:C12 isotope ratios > indicate that the added carbon is from a sequestered source. The false > conclusion is that the only source of sequestered carbon is man made > fossil fuels. The system includes a vast source of carbonate rocks that > is entering the system; dissolved corals and dissolved carbonate rocks. > > Chemistry teaches us that we couldn't have possibly have made that big > of an impact to the WHOLE SYSTEM as claimed by the AGW advocates, and the > isotope preference in the various equilibriums is slight, so their > conclusion that man made C12 stays in the atmosphere is clearly wrong and > the assumption debunked by simple chemistry. Actually the amount of CO2 put in the atmosphere during the course of the industrial revolution (or more recently) is sufficient that the atmospheric increase in CO2 should be twice what is observed. That means that half of anthropic CO2 is going to some sink somewhere. It is not going into land based sinks, since continued deforestation has increased the amount of atmospheric CO2 due to that source. That leaves, through the equilibrium of which you speak, the ocean as a sink, with the expectation that if the oceans are acting as the sink for the anthropogenic CO2, there will be a decrease in pH. Chemistry tells me that your explanation is pure bunkum. You are imagining that the atmospheric CO2 we know we are putting out through anthropogenic fossil fuel burning (and land use changes, namely deforestation) is somehow magically being replaced by CO2 from ocean carbonate rock and completely disappearing from the equation.
From: Bruce Richmond on 18 Jul 2010 14:13
On Jul 18, 1:56 pm, Bret Cahill <BretCah...(a)peoplepc.com> wrote: > Unless you have some theory on how the slight increase of temperature > each year triggers a release and/or formation of giga tons of CO2 / > year . . . [snip] Your inability to read a simple graph is noted. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/isolate:60/mean:12/scale:0.2/plot/gistemp/isolate:60/mean:12/from:1958 The cycles are not yearly. Still waiting for your theory on how the lagging co2 level causes a reversal in the temperature trend before hand. |