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From: Osher Doctorow on 20 May 2010 02:20
From Osher Doctorow

I begin by pointing out that Conditional Probability, which is used in
both pure Mathematical Probability-Statistics and Physics and even
quantitative behavioral/social sciences, is defined by:

1) P(B|A) = P(AB)/P(A) if P(A) is not 0.

I typed "if P(A) is not 0" in my original post here, which did not go
through, so on my second typing I omitted it to make the typing less
time consuming, and a hostile reader immediately used the opportunity
to attack the whole paper after I explained the omission.

Next, I should point out that Born's interpretation of ww* = P(finding
a particle in a volume of space) for w the Schrodinger equation wave
function, has a CONSEQUENCE - namely, that we can always divide two
nonzero probabilities to either obtain (1) or what (1) becomes if AB =
B with probability 1, namely P(B)/P(A) (because if AB = B with
probability one, then P(AB) = P(B)). The analog of the latter in
Probable Causation/Influence is 1 + P(B) - P(A) which I defined as P
' (A-->B) earlier. Here P(B) < = P(A) is a condition that is
required.

It follows that failure to make a choice between Conditional
Probability and Probable Causation/Influence in the context of my last
few posts (or more specifically, the choice is almost always made for
Conditional Probability rather than Probable Causation/Influence)
results under a variety of conditions (specified in those posts) in an
error or mistake in ratios or differences of probabilities of
magnitude 1, which is the range of any probability - probability being
defined on the interval [0, 1] which has length 1 - 0 = 1. In other
words, probability 1 and probability 0 events under those conditions
are easily reversed! Since both P(AB)/P(A) and P(A-->B) which
latter is 1 + P(AB) - P(A) or its alternate version 1 + P(B) - P(A)
are themselves always between 0 and 1, this is an unacceptable error
by any standard. If a person cannot underthose that, then I would
recommend leaving the fields of quantitative science and mathematics.
It is roughly like not understanding the letters A, B, C in taking an
English course.

Osher Doctorow
From: Osher Doctorow on 20 May 2010 02:28
From Osher Doctorow

In the next to last sentence of the previous post, "underthose" should
be "understand".

Osher Doctorow
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