JSH: Random distributions and prime numbers
in [Physics]
|
From: William Hughes on 14 Feb 2010 07:48 On Feb 14, 1:10 am, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On Feb 13, 10:41 am, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > On Feb 13, 1:09 am, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > On Feb 12, 8:21 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > On Feb 12, 10:27 pm, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > On Feb 12, 5:59 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > On Feb 12, 8:46 pm, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > On Feb 11, 7:08 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > JSH: Well if the predictions are wrong then > > > > > > > > JSH: there is no further argument. End of story. > > > > > > > > > Are your predictions wrong? Please start your answer Yes or No. > > > > > > > > Statistical arguments bore me. ... > > > > > > > Try again. > > > > > > No. > > > > > Ok. Thats clear enough. You think that saying > > > > 1.12 is 1 is not wrong. > > > > Please elaborate for the physics people. What exactly do you mean > > > with those numbers? > > > To anyone who can draw a distinction between "not wrong" > > and "wrong but maybe close enough to be useful" > > (this group includes physics people) you are saying 1.12 > > is 1. > > > In probability is anything 1? > > My point is your posts indicate you believe that 100% correctness is a > reasonable goal for an event that is about probability, so you're > saying that a 112% result is "wrong". Is that correct? Begin with > yes, or no please. > Yes. For instance to say that the probability that a fair coin shows heads is .49 is wrong. - William Hughes
From: JSH on 14 Feb 2010 11:28 On Feb 14, 4:48 am, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > On Feb 14, 1:10 am, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > On Feb 13, 10:41 am, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > On Feb 13, 1:09 am, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > On Feb 12, 8:21 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > On Feb 12, 10:27 pm, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > On Feb 12, 5:59 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > On Feb 12, 8:46 pm, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > On Feb 11, 7:08 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > JSH: Well if the predictions are wrong then > > > > > > > > > JSH: there is no further argument. End of story. > > > > > > > > > > Are your predictions wrong? Please start your answer Yes or No. > > > > > > > > > Statistical arguments bore me. ... > > > > > > > > Try again. > > > > > > > No. > > > > > > Ok. Thats clear enough. You think that saying > > > > > 1.12 is 1 is not wrong. > > > > > Please elaborate for the physics people. What exactly do you mean > > > > with those numbers? > > > > To anyone who can draw a distinction between "not wrong" > > > and "wrong but maybe close enough to be useful" > > > (this group includes physics people) you are saying 1.12 > > > is 1. > > > In probability is anything 1? > > > My point is your posts indicate you believe that 100% correctness is a > > reasonable goal for an event that is about probability, so you're > > saying that a 112% result is "wrong". Is that correct? Begin with > > yes, or no please. > > Yes. For instance to say that the probability that a fair coin > shows heads is .49 is wrong. > > - William Hughes Are you sure about that? I suggest you re-read a standard text on probability. ___JSH
From: William Hughes on 14 Feb 2010 13:26 On Feb 14, 12:28 pm, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On Feb 14, 4:48 am, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > On Feb 14, 1:10 am, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > On Feb 13, 10:41 am, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > On Feb 13, 1:09 am, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > On Feb 12, 8:21 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > On Feb 12, 10:27 pm, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > On Feb 12, 5:59 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > On Feb 12, 8:46 pm, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > On Feb 11, 7:08 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > JSH: Well if the predictions are wrong then > > > > > > > > > > JSH: there is no further argument. End of story. > > > > > > > > > > > Are your predictions wrong? Please start your answer Yes or No. > > > > > > > > > > Statistical arguments bore me. ... > > > > > > > > > Try again. > > > > > > > > No. > > > > > > > Ok. Thats clear enough. You think that saying > > > > > > 1.12 is 1 is not wrong. > > > > > > Please elaborate for the physics people. What exactly do you mean > > > > > with those numbers? > > > > > To anyone who can draw a distinction between "not wrong" > > > > and "wrong but maybe close enough to be useful" > > > > (this group includes physics people) you are saying 1.12 > > > > is 1. > > > > In probability is anything 1? > > > > My point is your posts indicate you believe that 100% correctness is a > > > reasonable goal for an event that is about probability, so you're > > > saying that a 112% result is "wrong". Is that correct? Begin with > > > yes, or no please. > > > Yes. For instance to say that the probability that a fair coin > > shows heads is .49 is wrong. > > > Are you sure about that? Yes. Just as sure as I am that saying "4 is prime" is wrong. A fair coin is defined to have a probability of .5 of showing heads. - William Hughes
From: JSH on 14 Feb 2010 17:30 On Feb 14, 10:26 am, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > On Feb 14, 12:28 pm, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > On Feb 14, 4:48 am, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > On Feb 14, 1:10 am, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > On Feb 13, 10:41 am, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > On Feb 13, 1:09 am, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > On Feb 12, 8:21 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > On Feb 12, 10:27 pm, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > On Feb 12, 5:59 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > On Feb 12, 8:46 pm, JSH <jst...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > On Feb 11, 7:08 pm, William Hughes <wpihug...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > JSH: Well if the predictions are wrong then > > > > > > > > > > > JSH: there is no further argument. End of story. > > > > > > > > > > > > Are your predictions wrong? Please start your answer Yes or No. > > > > > > > > > > > Statistical arguments bore me. ... > > > > > > > > > > Try again. > > > > > > > > > No. > > > > > > > > Ok. Thats clear enough. You think that saying > > > > > > > 1.12 is 1 is not wrong. > > > > > > > Please elaborate for the physics people. What exactly do you mean > > > > > > with those numbers? > > > > > > To anyone who can draw a distinction between "not wrong" > > > > > and "wrong but maybe close enough to be useful" > > > > > (this group includes physics people) you are saying 1.12 > > > > > is 1. > > > > > In probability is anything 1? > > > > > My point is your posts indicate you believe that 100% correctness is a > > > > reasonable goal for an event that is about probability, so you're > > > > saying that a 112% result is "wrong". Is that correct? Begin with > > > > yes, or no please. > > > > Yes. For instance to say that the probability that a fair coin > > > shows heads is .49 is wrong. > > > Are you sure about that? > > Yes. Just as sure as I am that saying > "4 is prime" is wrong. A fair coin is defined to > have a probability of .5 of showing heads. > > - William Hughes So what if you flip it a thousand times and it ends up 0.49? Is the coin not fair? If it IS fair, is 0.5 "wrong" as the probability? Should it instead be 0.49? Which is "right"? Also do you understand the concept of correlation? James Harris
From: Mark Murray on 14 Feb 2010 18:14
On 14/02/2010 22:30, JSH wrote: > So what if you flip it a thousand times and it ends up 0.49? This is called a "result", not the probability. Given a suitable sample size, it should be an approximation to the probability, but will very rarely be identically equal to it. It doesn't affect the fact that the coin still has a p(heads)=0.5 on any subsequent toss. > Is the coin not fair? If it IS fair, is 0.5 "wrong" as the > probability? Should it instead be 0.49? 1) The coin is fair. 2) No. 3) No. > Also do you understand the concept of correlation? Yes. M |