Somewhat OT: Long term design
in [Design]
|
From: Gerhard on 14 Jan 2010 10:51 "Sylvia Else" <sylvia(a)not.at.this.address> wrote in message news:01962acc$0$10146$c3e8da3(a)news.astraweb.com... > John Larkin wrote: >> On Thu, 14 Jan 2010 19:21:43 +1100, Sylvia Else >> <sylvia(a)not.at.this.address> wrote: >> >>> a7yvm109gf5d1(a)netzero.com wrote: >>> >>>> OR.... >>>> >>>> go all mechanical >>>> >>>> http://www.longnow.org/ >>>> >>>> (How long does a weight suspended in the air keeps its potential >>>> energy? Makes a good battery, no?) >>> Yes.... >>> >>> But now you have to design a mechanism to extract the energy that will >>> work after 1000 years. >>> >>> Sylvia. >> >> Centuries-old weight-powered clocks still work. Surely we can do >> better with modern materials. >> >> I don't think 1000 years is a long time for good materials. > > OK, you're just convincing me I should have said 10,000 years ;) > > Or indeed, the 48,000 years in the TV program. > > Though in Stargate Atlantis, they do have the advantage of using "naquita" > (sp?) for their power source, which seems to be an element oddly > overlooked in the periodic table. > > Sylvia. The "equipment" that is suppose to work after 10,000 or 48,000 years is not well defined. Any suggestions on what such "equipment" should do? If it must be a "computing" device of some sorts, what about using glass to construct the following. See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcDshWmhF4A As far as storing power is concerned, it will depend on the amount of power. What about a CO2 canister. The canister material might be a problem, but could be glass as well. If it just has to survive the 10,000/48,000 years to be operated by an intelligent being, the users' manual might be a bigger problem. What language should we use or would pictorials on glass be the safest option? If the "equipment" has to start after 10,000/48,000 years without human intervention, the actual challenge is building the 10 000/48,000 year timer. One solution is launching it on a 10,000/48,000 year orbit to re-enter and get deployed on re-entering the atmosphere. If it just sits in orbit around the earth for that period someone might fetch it and destroy the 'experiment', so what about launching it in a comet type orbit? Anti-impact defences might just destroy our experiment in the year 12010. Lots of energy in the re-enter phase (if there is still an atmosphere) Any suggestions on what type of energy the heat should the converted too. If humans have to operate it after 10,000 years, how can we attract attention to the "arrival" of the "equipment" (or is this a spy device that must operate in the stealth mode ... collecting data for who :-). Haven't had a good look at http://www.longnow.org/ - might be interesting. Gerhard van den Berg Meraka CSIR
From: Paul Hovnanian P.E. on 14 Jan 2010 12:55 Sylvia Else wrote: > A recent episode of Stargate Atlantis prompted me to think about how > would could design equipment that's intended to function far into the > future. The episode required stuff to function 48,000 years after > construction, but perhaps we could be less optimistic. > > Say 1000 years. Ask Thompson what keeps him going. Ducking and running. ;-) -- Paul Hovnanian paul(a)hovnanian.com ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Have gnu, will travel.
From: Jim Thompson on 14 Jan 2010 13:07 On Thu, 14 Jan 2010 09:55:02 -0800, "Paul Hovnanian P.E." <paul(a)hovnanian.com> wrote: >Sylvia Else wrote: > >> A recent episode of Stargate Atlantis prompted me to think about how >> would could design equipment that's intended to function far into the >> future. The episode required stuff to function 48,000 years after >> construction, but perhaps we could be less optimistic. >> >> Say 1000 years. > >Ask Thompson what keeps him going. > >Ducking and running. ;-) No need. I keep at it because I'm having fun. If it were work I'd quit immediately. But I enjoy the challenges... virtually every month some client presents a need that I don't have a ready answer for. Finding an exotic solution is fun! Take a look at that sonar chip posting... all kinds of cute logarithmic curve fitting WITH temperature compensation of _everything_, including NPN bulk re, beta and resistors with nasty TC's. ...Jim Thompson -- | James E.Thompson, CTO | mens | | Analog Innovations, Inc. | et | | Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus | | Phoenix, Arizona 85048 Skype: Contacts Only | | | Voice:(480)460-2350 Fax: Available upon request | Brass Rat | | E-mail Icon at http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 | I love to cook with wine. Sometimes I even put it in the food.
From: Michael A. Terrell on 14 Jan 2010 14:13 John Larkin wrote: > > A billion hours is a long time, 114K years, but 1000 years is a mere 9 > million hours. Unless there's a long-term wearout mechanism > (diffusion, corrosion, radiation damage) I'd guess that most parts are > still in the flat part of their bathtub curve at 1000 years. If one > were designing a 1000 year product, you'd certainly want to look for > potential wearouts. > > > > >In the context of this thread, the issue is further complicated by the > >question of whether a component is using up its design life while doing > >nothing. It may, or may not, depending. > > That's an issue in calculating equipment MTBF. The general rule is > that if you don't hit your reliability target doing straightforward > calculations, then you toss in a use factor. > > There are old clocks and watches and scientific instruments around > that work after hundreds of years, without benefit of exotic storage. > I'd guess that WWII-vintage electronics, stored in military wax-sealed > cardboard boxes, usually still works. > > What would fail in a conservatively-designed electronic gadget after > 1000 years? Barring corrosion, I can't see a wearout or diffusion > mechanism for thickfilm resistors or ceramic caps. Given the > observable stability of bipolar transistors and ICs, there doesn't > seem to be much carrier diffusion or radiation damage going on at room > temperature. I'd avoid CMOS type parts where a little charge > redistribution could cause problems. > > You could cheat and store the gear in Antartica. Most degradation > mechanisms follow the Arrhenius relationship. Tin whiskers. -- Greed is the root of all eBay.
From: Adrian Jansen on 14 Jan 2010 17:29
Sylvia Else wrote: > A recent episode of Stargate Atlantis prompted me to think about how > would could design equipment that's intended to function far into the > future. The episode required stuff to function 48,000 years after > construction, but perhaps we could be less optimistic. > > Say 1000 years. > > Note, the requirement is not that the equipment function *for* 1000 > years, but that when it is turned on, 1000 years from now, that it will > work. > > It seems to me that semiconductors are out due to effects of difusion > and radiation. > > But how about thermionic valves? They're not very reliable, but do they > age when not in use? Would they hold a vacuum over that time? > > Obviously electrolytic capacitors are a no-no, but can resistors and > capacitors be made stable enough that they'd work? > > Would it help to enclose the entire circuit in a vacuum tube? Again, > could the tube sustain the vacuum over such a period? > > An energy source is a problem. Perhaps a cell where acid is added (how?) > at the appropriate time? > > Sylvia. Maybe you could ask how far in the future you have to go before your 'device' becomes unrecognisable ? If the original function is still needed, just publishing the ideas and design is probably the best way of preserving it. After that time, either it is still needed, and could be built, or its totally irrelevant, and not needed. -- Regards, Adrian Jansen adrianjansen at internode dot on dot net Note reply address is invalid, convert address above to machine form. |