Global warming?
in [Design]
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From: Bill Sloman on 8 Jan 2010 11:27 On Jan 8, 1:04 pm, Raveninghorde <raveninghorde(a)invalid> wrote: > On Fri, 8 Jan 2010 03:46:22 -0800 (PST),Bill Sloman > > > > > > <bill.slo...(a)ieee.org> wrote: > >On Jan 8, 12:55 am, Raveninghorde <raveninghorde(a)invalid> wrote: > >> On Thu, 7 Jan 2010 15:25:25 -0800 (PST),Bill Sloman > > >> <bill.slo...(a)ieee.org> wrote: > > >> SNIP > > >> . > > >> >> Cold kills: > > >> >>http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article6979830.ece > > >> >> I've seen serious estimates that suggest that in the US and Europe, > >> >> cool snaps kill about four times as many people as heat waves. > > >> >But you can't actually cite any such estimate. > > >> One estimate of winter deaths here: > > >>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/06/winter-kills-excess-deaths-in-t.... > > >> /quote > > >> 108,500 Deaths in the US in 2008; 36,700 in England and Wales Last > >> Winter; 5,600 in Canada (2006); 7,000 in Australia (1997-2006 > >> Average); Thousands in Other Developed Countries > > >> /end quote > > >As you'd expect from a denialist web-site, they don't mention that hot > >summers also generate excess deaths, and haven't cited any numbers > >from tropical countries where excess deaths peak in summer, rather > >than winter - human beings did evolve in tropical Africa, and rarely > >run into excessive heat in temperate countries, though it does happen > >from time to time > > >http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave > > Once again you are proving yourself an inumerate idiot. Ravinghorde fails joined up logic again. > Since the article is dealing with excess winter deaths normal summers > are accounted for. Normal summer don't seem to produce excess deaths in temperate countries. Abnormally warm summers do. > As for your wiki article 14802 people died on France due to the summer > heatwave of 2003. The figure in the article for France for excess > winter deaths is 24938 on average. So a simple sum shows that a hot > summer killed 10,000 fewer people than an average winter in France. In a temperate country. > As far as the tropics are concerned this seems to be a red herring > from an alarmist perspective. I thought the normal claim was that > anthropogenic global warming would have much more impact on the non > tropics compared to the tropics. But hey AGW explains everything > including the common cold. Anthropogenic global warming is expected to have more impact at the poles than at the equator, but summer in tropical countries will get warmer and generate even more excess deaths than they do at the moment, while as you get further from the equator, the winters will become milder and the summers warmer, decreasing the excess deaths in winter and making excess deaths in summer more likely. As I said, you can't do joined-up logic. -- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen
From: Bill Sloman on 8 Jan 2010 11:28 On Jan 8, 4:26 pm, John Larkin <jjlar...(a)highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote: > On Fri, 8 Jan 2010 04:02:50 -0800 (PST),Bill Sloman > > > > > > <bill.slo...(a)ieee.org> wrote: > >On Jan 8, 1:32 am, John Larkin > ><jjlar...(a)highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote: > >> On Thu, 7 Jan 2010 15:25:39 -0800 (PST), dagmargoodb...(a)yahoo.com > >> wrote: > > >> >On Jan 7, 11:53 am, John Larkin > >> ><jjlar...(a)highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote: > >> >> On Thu, 07 Jan 2010 07:12:35 -0500, Bitrex > > >> >> <bit...(a)de.lete.earthlink.net> wrote: > >> >> >Michael A. Terrell wrote: > >> >> >> No damn way! > > >> >> >> It's 21 degrees in Ocala right now and expected to get colder. They are > >> >> >> forecasting some snow, and this may become one of the longest cold > >> >> >> spells on record with another cold front headed this way. > > >> >> >I made 3 three-point shots while playing basketball today out of the 4 I > >> >> >attempted. With a three point shot percentage of 75% I am therefore the > >> >> >greatest basketball player who ever lived. > > >> >> >One should use care in making global conclusions using only local data > >> >> >points. > > >> >> Well, the alarmists weren't shy about blaming every storm, beach > >> >> erosion, hot spell, change in butterfly population, or the weigh of a > >> >> herd of sheep on Global Warming. > > >> >>http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8445613.stm > > >> >> John > > >> >Not to worry, we're still doomed: > >> > http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=9495864 > > >> Another Ice Age would be "just a blip in the long-term heating trend." > > >I think you are letting your over-fertile imagination run away here. > > >> Just keep extending the definition of "weather" and "climate" as suits > >> your political needs. > > >The way you do? You and James Arthur do seem enthusiastic about > >confusing weather models (which are susceptible to the butterfly > >effect) and climate models (which are deliberately onstructed so that > >they aren't). > > The only way to construct a climate simulation that isn't chaotic is > to get it entirely wrong. In your ever-so-expert opinion. -- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen
From: John Larkin on 8 Jan 2010 11:37 On Fri, 8 Jan 2010 08:28:47 -0800 (PST), Bill Sloman <bill.sloman(a)ieee.org> wrote: >On Jan 8, 4:26�pm, John Larkin ><jjlar...(a)highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote: >> On Fri, 8 Jan 2010 04:02:50 -0800 (PST),Bill Sloman >> >> >> >> >> >> <bill.slo...(a)ieee.org> wrote: >> >On Jan 8, 1:32�am, John Larkin >> ><jjlar...(a)highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote: >> >> On Thu, 7 Jan 2010 15:25:39 -0800 (PST), dagmargoodb...(a)yahoo.com >> >> wrote: >> >> >> >On Jan 7, 11:53�am, John Larkin >> >> ><jjlar...(a)highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote: >> >> >> On Thu, 07 Jan 2010 07:12:35 -0500, Bitrex >> >> >> >> <bit...(a)de.lete.earthlink.net> wrote: >> >> >> >Michael A. Terrell wrote: >> >> >> >> No damn way! >> >> >> >> >> It's 21 degrees in Ocala right now and expected to get colder. They are >> >> >> >> forecasting some snow, and this may become one of the longest cold >> >> >> >> spells on record with another cold front headed this way. >> >> >> >> >I made 3 three-point shots while playing basketball today out of the 4 I >> >> >> >attempted. �With a three point shot percentage of 75% I am therefore the >> >> >> >greatest basketball player who ever lived. >> >> >> >> >One should use care in making global conclusions using only local data >> >> >> >points. >> >> >> >> Well, the alarmists weren't shy about blaming every storm, beach >> >> >> erosion, hot spell, change in butterfly population, or the weigh of a >> >> >> herd of sheep on Global Warming. >> >> >> >>http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8445613.stm >> >> >> >> John >> >> >> >Not to worry, we're still doomed: >> >> > �http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=9495864 >> >> >> Another Ice Age would be "just a blip in the long-term heating trend." >> >> >I think you are letting your over-fertile imagination run away here. >> >> >> Just keep extending the definition of "weather" and "climate" as suits >> >> your political needs. >> >> >The way you do? You and James Arthur do seem enthusiastic about >> >confusing weather models (which are susceptible to the butterfly >> >effect) and climate models (which are deliberately onstructed so that >> >they aren't). >> >> The only way to construct a climate simulation that isn't chaotic is >> to get it entirely wrong. > >In your ever-so-expert opinion. I simulate and design dynamic systems for a living, and sometimes for fun too. You don't earn a living, and apparently don't have fun. John
From: Raveninghorde on 8 Jan 2010 14:25 On Fri, 8 Jan 2010 08:27:15 -0800 (PST), Bill Sloman <bill.sloman(a)ieee.org> wrote: SNIP >> >> >> Cold kills: >> >> >> >>http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article6979830.ece >> >> >> >> I've seen serious estimates that suggest that in the US and Europe, >> >> >> cool snaps kill about four times as many people as heat waves. >> >> >> >But you can't actually cite any such estimate. >> >> >> One estimate of winter deaths here: >> >> >>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/06/winter-kills-excess-deaths-in-t... >> >> >> /quote >> >> >> 108,500 Deaths in the US in 2008; 36,700 in England and Wales Last >> >> Winter; 5,600 in Canada (2006); 7,000 in Australia (1997-2006 >> >> Average); Thousands in Other Developed Countries >> >> >> /end quote >> >> >As you'd expect from a denialist web-site, they don't mention that hot >> >summers also generate excess deaths, and haven't cited any numbers >> >from tropical countries where excess deaths peak in summer, rather >> >than winter - human beings did evolve in tropical Africa, and rarely >> >run into excessive heat in temperate countries, though it does happen >> >from time to time >> >> >http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave >> >> Once again you are proving yourself an inumerate idiot. > >Ravinghorde fails joined up logic again. > >> Since the article is dealing with excess winter deaths normal summers >> are accounted for. > >Normal summer don't seem to produce excess deaths in temperate >countries. Abnormally warm summers do. Tilting at windmills here. I didn't disagree with this point. > >> As for your wiki article 14802 people died on France due to the summer >> heatwave of 2003. The figure in the article for France for excess >> winter deaths is 24938 on average. So a simple sum shows that a hot >> summer killed 10,000 fewer people than an average winter in France. > >In a temperate country. You are the one who tried to use France, a temperate country, as a counter to the proposal that cold kills and as I demonstrated you were an inumerate idiot and wrong. > >> As far as the tropics are concerned this seems to be a red herring >> from an alarmist perspective. I thought the normal claim was that >> anthropogenic global warming would have much more impact on the non >> tropics compared to the tropics. But hey AGW explains everything >> including the common cold. > >Anthropogenic global warming is expected to have more impact at the >poles than at the equator, but summer in tropical countries will get >warmer and generate even more excess deaths than they do at the >moment, while as you get further from the equator, the winters will >become milder and the summers warmer, decreasing the excess deaths in >winter and making excess deaths in summer more likely. Do you have any facts? Or is this the normal there is no evidence so Bill is wright argument you so love? > >As I said, you can't do joined-up logic.
From: Bill Sloman on 8 Jan 2010 14:49
On Jan 8, 5:37 pm, John Larkin <jjlar...(a)highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote: > On Fri, 8 Jan 2010 08:28:47 -0800 (PST),Bill Sloman > > > > > > <bill.slo...(a)ieee.org> wrote: > >On Jan 8, 4:26 pm, John Larkin > ><jjlar...(a)highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote: > >> On Fri, 8 Jan 2010 04:02:50 -0800 (PST),Bill Sloman > > >> <bill.slo...(a)ieee.org> wrote: > >> >On Jan 8, 1:32 am, John Larkin > >> ><jjlar...(a)highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote: > >> >> On Thu, 7 Jan 2010 15:25:39 -0800 (PST), dagmargoodb...(a)yahoo.com > >> >> wrote: > > >> >> >On Jan 7, 11:53 am, John Larkin > >> >> ><jjlar...(a)highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote: > >> >> >> On Thu, 07 Jan 2010 07:12:35 -0500, Bitrex > > >> >> >> <bit...(a)de.lete.earthlink.net> wrote: > >> >> >> >Michael A. Terrell wrote: > >> >> >> >> No damn way! > > >> >> >> >> It's 21 degrees in Ocala right now and expected to get colder.. They are > >> >> >> >> forecasting some snow, and this may become one of the longest cold > >> >> >> >> spells on record with another cold front headed this way. > > >> >> >> >I made 3 three-point shots while playing basketball today out of the 4 I > >> >> >> >attempted. With a three point shot percentage of 75% I am therefore the > >> >> >> >greatest basketball player who ever lived. > > >> >> >> >One should use care in making global conclusions using only local data > >> >> >> >points. > > >> >> >> Well, the alarmists weren't shy about blaming every storm, beach > >> >> >> erosion, hot spell, change in butterfly population, or the weigh of a > >> >> >> herd of sheep on Global Warming. > > >> >> >>http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8445613.stm > > >> >> >> John > > >> >> >Not to worry, we're still doomed: > >> >> >http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=9495864 > > >> >> Another Ice Age would be "just a blip in the long-term heating trend." > > >> >I think you are letting your over-fertile imagination run away here. > > >> >> Just keep extending the definition of "weather" and "climate" as suits > >> >> your political needs. > > >> >The way you do? You and James Arthur do seem enthusiastic about > >> >confusing weather models (which are susceptible to the butterfly > >> >effect) and climate models (which are deliberately onstructed so that > >> >they aren't). > > >> The only way to construct a climate simulation that isn't chaotic is > >> to get it entirely wrong. > > >In your ever-so-expert opinion. > > I simulate and design dynamic systems for a living, and sometimes for > fun too. You don't earn a living, and apparently don't have fun. And you are sufficiently ill-informed to think that simulating simple, isolated dynamic systems gives you the background knowledge required to judge climate simulations. This is funny enough to amuse even me. Thanks for the entertainment. -- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen |