Solar cheaper than nuclear
in [Design]
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From: nospam on 10 Aug 2010 19:06 Dirk Bruere at NeoPax <dirk.bruere(a)gmail.com> wrote: >Even top quality PSUs are available for less than 10c per Watt. >I would eventually expect raw panels to be producing at around 20c/W >As another poster said, it will come down to land price and metalwork costs. > >If solar is making nuclear marginal now, where will it be in 10 years? Producing power for the other 16 hours of every day.
From: Spehro Pefhany on 10 Aug 2010 19:53 On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 22:23:46 +0000 (UTC), the renowned don(a)manx.misty.com (Don Klipstein) wrote: >In article <3l6266h863neef2lh9jflmfpceaogu10qq(a)4ax.com>, CIC wrote: >>On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 08:01:14 +0000 (UTC), don(a)manx.misty.com (Don >>Klipstein) wrote: >> >>>In article <74i166l7nrg692b8g57j5jgmsnigaa8ono(a)4ax.com>, CIC wrote: >>>>On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 03:02:33 +0000 (UTC), don(a)manx.misty.com (Don >>>>Klipstein) wrote: >>>> >>>>>In <ojc1669gal5p6l83l45p54m8e1pi6c6lva(a)4ax.com>, CIC wrote in small part: >>>>> >>>>>>50% conversion efficiency on solar panels is achievable. >>>>> >>>>> Can you give a cite for this? >>>>> >>>>> Especially should it be more practical than a layer of indium gallium >>>>>nitride or relative-thereof cells, over layer of a gallium arsenide or >>>>>gallium phosphide or relative-thereof cells, over a layer of silicon ones. >>>>> >>>>> The LED manufacturing industry is doing little with die sizes much >>>>>larger than a 1 mm square, despite efficiency of InGaN varying generally >>>>>inversely with current density for die sizes and amounts of current >>>>>generally mostly used. I am aware of only one manufacturer making dice >>>>>of that chemistry in a size so monstrous as roughly a 3 mm square, and >>>>>one other ramping up production of something likely smaller but much >>>>>bigger than a 1 mm square. And InGaN LEDs have been around since about >>>>>1996, and ones with roughly 1 mm square dice have been around since around >>>>>2001. >>>> >>>>Check this: >>>> >>>>http://www.spectrolab.com/DataSheets/PV/pv_tech/Evolution%20of%20 >>>>Multijunction%20Technology.pdf >>> >>> Starts with a "cherleader-style" photo, and the next graphic afterwards >>>is a "global warming hockey stick". >>> >>> I am already in a bad mood to be sold on whatever whoever is trying here >>>to sell. >>> >>> A few graphics afterwards, a useful one shows up. That has one curve >>>getting to about 44% for "best research cell efficiency" as of approaching >>>2010. That one also broke past 30% around 1991. >>> >>> I have yet to see on the market any PV items much more than roughly 11% >>>efficient. >>> >>> (If you can tell me where and how to buy so much as 15% efficient means >>>of converting sunlight to electricity - pleaase put up or shut up!) >>> >>> LED technology appears to me to having its cabability doubling every >>>3.5-4 years, slow in comparison to computer technology mostly at least >>>doubling every 2 years on average from sometime in the 1960's to 1 or 2 >>>years ago. >>> >>> LEDs were on the slower pace from 1960's to now... >>> >>> "Laboratory prototype" solar according to above had a little over half a >>>doubling (on log scale) in about 18 years! >>> >>> When do I get to buy 20% or 15% efficient solar cells (preferably >>>practical) from Digi-Key or Edmund Scientific or any likes of either of >>>these? >> >>And really... do you think Digi-Key or Edmund Scientific would be the >>best place to shop for solar cells and solar panels? >> >>Ha Ha... I see now what an "expert" level user you are in this area! > > I am not an expert solar cell shopper, since I have not been much in the >market for them. However, I have been a regular reader of this newsgroup >since 1994, and I have yet to hear of available solar cells having >efficiency much past the ~10-11% typical of monocrystalline silicon. > > Should you know something I don't about where to get solar cells better >than that, preferably where any old hobbyist can get them, please tell! http://www.spectrolab.com/DataSheets/NeXtTJ/NXTTJ.pdf 30% efficiency. Price, like the applications, astronomical, and availability likely makes M*x*m look attractive. Best regards, Spehro Pefhany -- "it's the network..." "The Journey is the reward" speff(a)interlog.com Info for manufacturers: http://www.trexon.com Embedded software/hardware/analog Info for designers: http://www.speff.com
From: Dirk Bruere at NeoPax on 10 Aug 2010 19:53 On 11/08/2010 00:06, nospam wrote: > Dirk Bruere at NeoPax<dirk.bruere(a)gmail.com> wrote: > >> Even top quality PSUs are available for less than 10c per Watt. >> I would eventually expect raw panels to be producing at around 20c/W >> As another poster said, it will come down to land price and metalwork costs. >> >> If solar is making nuclear marginal now, where will it be in 10 years? > > Producing power for the other 16 hours of every day. > Well, it better not be more expensive than PV+battery -- Dirk http://www.transcendence.me.uk/ - Transcendence UK http://www.blogtalkradio.com/onetribe - Occult Talk Show
From: AZ Nomad on 10 Aug 2010 21:44 On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 22:45:22 +0100, Dirk Bruere at NeoPax <dirk.bruere(a)gmail.com> wrote: >On 10/08/2010 19:30, Charlie E. wrote: >> On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 19:02:15 +0100, Dirk Bruere at NeoPax >> <dirk.bruere(a)gmail.com> wrote: >> >>> On 10/08/2010 16:26, Jim Thompson wrote: >> >>>> >>>> The naivete, and ignorance (?), of tree-huggers is stunningly >>>> profound. >>>> >>>> I suspect it's because they're not engineers... they think arm-waving >>>> and warm and cuddly feelings are what make things work. >>>> >>>> ...Jim Thompson >>> >>> So you have some reason for believing that solar panels are going to >>> remain at around $400 per sq m when at least one company is >>> manufacturing them at a third of that price? And that manufacturing cost >>> will never fall below that value? >> >> Dirk, >> Yes, the panels MAY drop in price, by a third or even more. >> >> The mounting hardware and similiar infrastructure won't drop that >> much, if at all. >True. >That price will come to dominate. >> Installation for them will only go up, at least for a while. >> >> Inverters and other grid tie or other uses SHOULD go down, but they >> haven't yet! >Well, we know where the prices are heading by looking at a mature >comparable technology that is being mass manufactured - PC PSUs. I have >seen retail 200W PSUs for $10 Have you priced 20KW PSUs recently?
From: Tim Williams on 10 Aug 2010 22:48
"AZ Nomad" <aznomad.3(a)PremoveOBthisOX.COM> wrote in message news:slrni6403b.cqm.aznomad.3(a)ip70-176-155-130.ph.ph.cox.net... > Have you priced 20KW PSUs recently? I have. I'm tenatively offering 10kW induction heaters for $2000. Want one? Tim -- Deep Friar: a very philosophical monk. Website: http://webpages.charter.net/dawill/tmoranwms |