Solar cheaper than nuclear
in [Design]
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From: Charlie E. on 10 Aug 2010 14:30 On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 19:02:15 +0100, Dirk Bruere at NeoPax <dirk.bruere(a)gmail.com> wrote: >On 10/08/2010 16:26, Jim Thompson wrote: >> >> The naivete, and ignorance (�), of tree-huggers is stunningly >> profound. >> >> I suspect it's because they're not engineers... they think arm-waving >> and warm and cuddly feelings are what make things work. >> >> ...Jim Thompson > >So you have some reason for believing that solar panels are going to >remain at around $400 per sq m when at least one company is >manufacturing them at a third of that price? And that manufacturing cost >will never fall below that value? Dirk, Yes, the panels MAY drop in price, by a third or even more. The mounting hardware and similiar infrastructure won't drop that much, if at all. Installation for them will only go up, at least for a while. Inverters and other grid tie or other uses SHOULD go down, but they haven't yet! BTW, the trend in industry for residential panels is to include the inverter and grid tie equipment ON THE PANEL! That way, the actual interconnections are all done as standard electrical connections as per NEC, meaning a standard electrician can wire them up without a lot of special training. Also makes passing code easier. But right now, as a home owner, I can't buy Nanosolar panels. They are shipping everything they can produce either to Germany or to large industrial installations. When their production increases to the extent that they can sell to residential installers, MAYBE we will see less expensive home panels... Charlie
From: Paul Keinanen on 10 Aug 2010 15:11 On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 00:17:51 -0700, CIC <cicel(a)iinet.com> wrote: >On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 09:43:09 +0300, Paul Keinanen <keinanen(a)sci.fi> >wrote: > >>On Mon, 09 Aug 2010 23:06:11 -0700, CIC <cicel(a)iinet.com> wrote: >> >>>On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 08:39:04 +0300, Paul Keinanen <keinanen(a)sci.fi> >>>wrote: >>> >>>>On Mon, 09 Aug 2010 19:21:19 -0700, CIC <cicel(a)iinet.com> wrote: >>>> >>>>>I don't believe there >>>>>will be any distance transmission of energy, the way we do it today. >>>> >>>>If you intend to use unpredictable sources, such as wind energy, you >>>>definitely are going to need a much larger and stronger transmission >>>>network to even out the local production variations. >>>> >>>>For wind energy, be prepared to transfer energy at distances that are >>>>similar to the size of a large high or low pressure area. The wind is >>>>blowing around the center of the high or low pressure area, but there >>>>is no wind in the center. >>> >>>That is why they are placed in areas where there is a predictable wind >>>pattern, which it happens to be near a large city, most of the time. >> >>Perhaps on the trade wind coasts you might a capacity factor CF up to >>50 %, in other areas 20-40 %. >> >>A 3 MW nominal power turbine with CF=33 % would produce only 24 MWh >>each day on average. > > >Right. The coastal areas are the best, but there are some very good >inland wind corridors were have been placed. > >http://www.nrel.gov/wind/systemsintegration/images/home_usmap.jpg > >http://www.energy.ca.gov/wind/overview.html From that site, I found for year 2001 http://www.energy.ca.gov/reports/2003-01-17_500-02-034F.PDF which seems to be the newest production statistics available. Look at Table #5, which gives the capacity factors CF for areas and quarters. The annual CF varies from 9 % to 27 %. To get some comparative values for that same era, the corresponding figures for individual turbines in Finland in the early 2000's http://virtual.vtt.fi/virtual/proj4/tuulitilastot/turbine.htm are quite similar. With such low capacity factors CF, it should be clear that without the ability to transfer power from windy areas to calm areas (at least 1000-2000 km), wind energy is going to be a fringe utility.
From: Paul Keinanen on 10 Aug 2010 15:43 On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 09:13:22 -0500, "Tim Williams" <tmoranwms(a)charter.net> wrote: > >It's not true that they do it "no problem". The French have been putting >it off just as long as we've been putting off Yucca mountain. >http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meuse/Haute_Marne_Underground_Research_Laboratory >Locations proposed in the 90's, repository licensed by 2015, operation >expected by 2025 (as if). In Finland, the Onkalo repository http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onkalo#Onkalo_waste_repository is quite generally accepted. It is currently owned by Fortum (operating two PWRs) and TVO operating two BWRs and one EPR PWR _still_ under construction. Recently, the Finnish parliament granted two new reactor licenses, one for TVO and one for Fennovoima, but not for the third applicant Fortum. The only "problem" we have is that the Onkalo owners TVO and Fortum are not currently willing to accept the nuclear waste from the Fennovoima reactor, which is to be built in a few years.
From: Jim Thompson on 10 Aug 2010 15:51 On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 11:30:50 -0700, Charlie E. <edmondson(a)ieee.org> wrote: >On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 19:02:15 +0100, Dirk Bruere at NeoPax ><dirk.bruere(a)gmail.com> wrote: > >>On 10/08/2010 16:26, Jim Thompson wrote: > >>> >>> The naivete, and ignorance (�), of tree-huggers is stunningly >>> profound. >>> >>> I suspect it's because they're not engineers... they think arm-waving >>> and warm and cuddly feelings are what make things work. >>> >>> ...Jim Thompson >> >>So you have some reason for believing that solar panels are going to >>remain at around $400 per sq m when at least one company is >>manufacturing them at a third of that price? And that manufacturing cost >>will never fall below that value? > >Dirk, >Yes, the panels MAY drop in price, by a third or even more. > >The mounting hardware and similiar infrastructure won't drop that >much, if at all. > >Installation for them will only go up, at least for a while. > >Inverters and other grid tie or other uses SHOULD go down, but they >haven't yet! > >BTW, the trend in industry for residential panels is to include the >inverter and grid tie equipment ON THE PANEL! That way, the actual >interconnections are all done as standard electrical connections as >per NEC, meaning a standard electrician can wire them up without a lot >of special training. Also makes passing code easier. > >But right now, as a home owner, I can't buy Nanosolar panels. They >are shipping everything they can produce either to Germany or to large >industrial installations. When their production increases to the >extent that they can sell to residential installers, MAYBE we will see >less expensive home panels... > >Charlie And the benefit/cost ratio is what?? ...Jim Thompson -- | James E.Thompson, CTO | mens | | Analog Innovations, Inc. | et | | Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus | | Phoenix, Arizona 85048 Skype: Contacts Only | | | Voice:(480)460-2350 Fax: Available upon request | Brass Rat | | E-mail Icon at http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 | Spice is like a sports car... Performance only as good as the person behind the wheel.
From: Dirk Bruere at NeoPax on 10 Aug 2010 17:41
On 10/08/2010 20:51, Jim Thompson wrote: > On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 11:30:50 -0700, Charlie E.<edmondson(a)ieee.org> > wrote: > >> On Tue, 10 Aug 2010 19:02:15 +0100, Dirk Bruere at NeoPax >> <dirk.bruere(a)gmail.com> wrote: >> >>> On 10/08/2010 16:26, Jim Thompson wrote: >> >>>> >>>> The naivete, and ignorance (�), of tree-huggers is stunningly >>>> profound. >>>> >>>> I suspect it's because they're not engineers... they think arm-waving >>>> and warm and cuddly feelings are what make things work. >>>> >>>> ...Jim Thompson >>> >>> So you have some reason for believing that solar panels are going to >>> remain at around $400 per sq m when at least one company is >>> manufacturing them at a third of that price? And that manufacturing cost >>> will never fall below that value? >> >> Dirk, >> Yes, the panels MAY drop in price, by a third or even more. >> >> The mounting hardware and similiar infrastructure won't drop that >> much, if at all. >> >> Installation for them will only go up, at least for a while. >> >> Inverters and other grid tie or other uses SHOULD go down, but they >> haven't yet! >> >> BTW, the trend in industry for residential panels is to include the >> inverter and grid tie equipment ON THE PANEL! That way, the actual >> interconnections are all done as standard electrical connections as >> per NEC, meaning a standard electrician can wire them up without a lot >> of special training. Also makes passing code easier. >> >> But right now, as a home owner, I can't buy Nanosolar panels. They >> are shipping everything they can produce either to Germany or to large >> industrial installations. When their production increases to the >> extent that they can sell to residential installers, MAYBE we will see >> less expensive home panels... >> >> Charlie > > And the benefit/cost ratio is what?? > > ...Jim Thompson Improving all the time, with no reason known for it to stop within the next couple of decades. -- Dirk http://www.transcendence.me.uk/ - Transcendence UK http://www.blogtalkradio.com/onetribe - Occult Talk Show |