From: Joerg on
krw(a)att.bizzzzzzzzzzzz wrote:
> On Sun, 06 Jun 2010 00:10:53 -0700, Robert Baer <robertbaer(a)localnet.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Joerg wrote:
>>> Yzordderrex wrote:
>>>> On Jun 5, 10:06 am, Winfield Hill <Winfield_mem...(a)newsguy.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>> Yzordderrex wrote...
>>>>>
>>>>>> I heard that Vishay is cancelling open orders for fets and shutting
>>>>>> lines down. I suspect my intelligence sources though. Has anyone
>>>>>> heard anything that might confirm this?
>>>>> Can you get more specific information. With part numbers?
>>>>> For example, Vishay bought a raft of old MOSFET products
>>>>> from IRF a few years ago, parts that IRF was likely ready
>>>>> to retire then, and Vishay may finally be retiring now.
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Thanks,
>>>>> - Win
>>>> Sorry Win, I don't have much to go on. I was told that they are
>>>> canceling open orders. I think this is probably an embellishment of
>>>> the truth. I do notice quite a few fets are out of stock at digikey,
>>>> so I expect there is a lot of panic buying going on. Not just
>>>> Vishay, but other sources as well. A different intel source told me
>>>> that they are trying to slow down this environment where purchasing
>>>> groups are helter skelter ordering 2x what they need in order to get
>>>> what they need. ...
>>>
>>> That actually _is_ what I recommend to client for some parts. Better to
>>> have $3k of extra inventory sitting on the shelf than being hit with a
>>> hard 20wk leadtime and next month you have to furlough half the
>>> production staff because of a hardcore line stop. I know that
>>> accountants and CFOs really don't like this but man's gotta do what
>>> man's gotta do.
>>>
>>> The only explanation I could imagine is that some mfgs must have slammed
>>> the brakes end of 2008.
>>>
>>> [...]
>>>
>> 20wk lead time sounds like they have to open new mines for raw
>> materials, then build plants, then...
>
> One of the Disties was telling me of 214 week lead times. Yes, 2014.


Time to re-design for another manufacturer's part, and pronto. That sort
of leadtime is almost Maximesque :-)

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

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From: krw on
On Sun, 06 Jun 2010 09:46:37 -0700, Joerg <invalid(a)invalid.invalid> wrote:

>krw(a)att.bizzzzzzzzzzzz wrote:
>> On Sun, 06 Jun 2010 08:17:29 -0700, Joerg <invalid(a)invalid.invalid> wrote:
>>
>>> Robert Baer wrote:
>>>> Joerg wrote:
>>>>> Yzordderrex wrote:
>>>>>> On Jun 5, 10:06 am, Winfield Hill <Winfield_mem...(a)newsguy.com>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>> Yzordderrex wrote...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I heard that Vishay is cancelling open orders for fets and shutting
>>>>>>>> lines down. I suspect my intelligence sources though. Has anyone
>>>>>>>> heard anything that might confirm this?
>>>>>>> Can you get more specific information. With part numbers?
>>>>>>> For example, Vishay bought a raft of old MOSFET products
>>>>>>> from IRF a few years ago, parts that IRF was likely ready
>>>>>>> to retire then, and Vishay may finally be retiring now.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Thanks,
>>>>>>> - Win
>>>>>> Sorry Win, I don't have much to go on. I was told that they are
>>>>>> canceling open orders. I think this is probably an embellishment of
>>>>>> the truth. I do notice quite a few fets are out of stock at digikey,
>>>>>> so I expect there is a lot of panic buying going on. Not just
>>>>>> Vishay, but other sources as well. A different intel source told me
>>>>>> that they are trying to slow down this environment where purchasing
>>>>>> groups are helter skelter ordering 2x what they need in order to get
>>>>>> what they need. ...
>>>>>
>>>>> That actually _is_ what I recommend to client for some parts. Better
>>>>> to have $3k of extra inventory sitting on the shelf than being hit
>>>>> with a hard 20wk leadtime and next month you have to furlough half the
>>>>> production staff because of a hardcore line stop. I know that
>>>>> accountants and CFOs really don't like this but man's gotta do what
>>>>> man's gotta do.
>>>>>
>>>>> The only explanation I could imagine is that some mfgs must have
>>>>> slammed the brakes end of 2008.
>>>>>
>>>>> [...]
>>>>>
>>>> 20wk lead time sounds like they have to open new mines for raw
>>>> materials, then build plants, then...
>>>
>>> Well, I see that sort of time frame a lot lately. Essentially it means
>>> "No, we don't have anything we could test, package and bond. Nada, zip,
>>> zilch". So one has to react by hoarding stuff.
>>
>> Which, of course, makes things even worse. 1) product dries up. 2) Everyone
>> triple-orders. 3) Parts go unused. 4) A year down the road orders dry up
>> while everyone goes through their inventory. Go to 1).
>
>
>Sure, but what can you do if manufacturers don't plan ahead far enough?

Nothing. I'm with you. I *want* my employer to make sure he can build
product for the next year. I like it when he makes (lotsa) money. *Whatever*
that takes.

>Recently I had designs where, when I handed the client the module spec,
>schematic and BOM, a part that showed thousands of stock just days
>before stood at zilch. So nowadays my recommendation is often "Look at
>the schematic later, first order the BOM stuff, right now, and enough to
>last at least through the first half year".

When I worked for LM they had prototype quantity issues. I told them that I
always had a drawer full of any component I was designing in and wouldn't
start until I did. When I left they were *still* chasing parts and raw
boards. What a mess. Your tax dollars at work.
From: krw on
On Sun, 06 Jun 2010 09:49:09 -0700, Joerg <invalid(a)invalid.invalid> wrote:

>krw(a)att.bizzzzzzzzzzzz wrote:
>> On Sun, 06 Jun 2010 00:10:53 -0700, Robert Baer <robertbaer(a)localnet.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Joerg wrote:
>>>> Yzordderrex wrote:
>>>>> On Jun 5, 10:06 am, Winfield Hill <Winfield_mem...(a)newsguy.com>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> Yzordderrex wrote...
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I heard that Vishay is cancelling open orders for fets and shutting
>>>>>>> lines down. I suspect my intelligence sources though. Has anyone
>>>>>>> heard anything that might confirm this?
>>>>>> Can you get more specific information. With part numbers?
>>>>>> For example, Vishay bought a raft of old MOSFET products
>>>>>> from IRF a few years ago, parts that IRF was likely ready
>>>>>> to retire then, and Vishay may finally be retiring now.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Thanks,
>>>>>> - Win
>>>>> Sorry Win, I don't have much to go on. I was told that they are
>>>>> canceling open orders. I think this is probably an embellishment of
>>>>> the truth. I do notice quite a few fets are out of stock at digikey,
>>>>> so I expect there is a lot of panic buying going on. Not just
>>>>> Vishay, but other sources as well. A different intel source told me
>>>>> that they are trying to slow down this environment where purchasing
>>>>> groups are helter skelter ordering 2x what they need in order to get
>>>>> what they need. ...
>>>>
>>>> That actually _is_ what I recommend to client for some parts. Better to
>>>> have $3k of extra inventory sitting on the shelf than being hit with a
>>>> hard 20wk leadtime and next month you have to furlough half the
>>>> production staff because of a hardcore line stop. I know that
>>>> accountants and CFOs really don't like this but man's gotta do what
>>>> man's gotta do.
>>>>
>>>> The only explanation I could imagine is that some mfgs must have slammed
>>>> the brakes end of 2008.
>>>>
>>>> [...]
>>>>
>>> 20wk lead time sounds like they have to open new mines for raw
>>> materials, then build plants, then...
>>
>> One of the Disties was telling me of 214 week lead times. Yes, 2014.
>
>
>Time to re-design for another manufacturer's part, and pronto. That sort
>of leadtime is almost Maximesque :-)

Ya think! So far we've been OK. I've had to add a bunch of vendors as
alternatives. Crystals and caps have been a problem. So far our inventory
control people have been pretty good at keeping inventory. Often far
exceeding expectations. One crystal that I was going to obsolete had >12K in
inventory - guess not. I did reduce it from two to one per.
From: Joerg on
krw(a)att.bizzzzzzzzzzzz wrote:
> On Sun, 06 Jun 2010 09:46:37 -0700, Joerg <invalid(a)invalid.invalid> wrote:
>

[...]

>> Recently I had designs where, when I handed the client the module spec,
>> schematic and BOM, a part that showed thousands of stock just days
>> before stood at zilch. So nowadays my recommendation is often "Look at
>> the schematic later, first order the BOM stuff, right now, and enough to
>> last at least through the first half year".
>
> When I worked for LM they had prototype quantity issues. I told them that I
> always had a drawer full of any component I was designing in and wouldn't
> start until I did. When I left they were *still* chasing parts and raw
> boards. What a mess. Your tax dollars at work.


Currently I am working with an engineer whose attitude in that respect I
like: He only designs stuff in when he has an order confirmation _and_ a
valid FedEx tracking number.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

"gmail" domain blocked because of excessive spam.
Use another domain or send PM.
From: Joerg on
krw(a)att.bizzzzzzzzzzzz wrote:
> On Sun, 06 Jun 2010 09:49:09 -0700, Joerg <invalid(a)invalid.invalid> wrote:
>
>> krw(a)att.bizzzzzzzzzzzz wrote:
>>> On Sun, 06 Jun 2010 00:10:53 -0700, Robert Baer <robertbaer(a)localnet.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Joerg wrote:
>>>>> Yzordderrex wrote:
>>>>>> On Jun 5, 10:06 am, Winfield Hill <Winfield_mem...(a)newsguy.com>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>> Yzordderrex wrote...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I heard that Vishay is cancelling open orders for fets and shutting
>>>>>>>> lines down. I suspect my intelligence sources though. Has anyone
>>>>>>>> heard anything that might confirm this?
>>>>>>> Can you get more specific information. With part numbers?
>>>>>>> For example, Vishay bought a raft of old MOSFET products
>>>>>>> from IRF a few years ago, parts that IRF was likely ready
>>>>>>> to retire then, and Vishay may finally be retiring now.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Thanks,
>>>>>>> - Win
>>>>>> Sorry Win, I don't have much to go on. I was told that they are
>>>>>> canceling open orders. I think this is probably an embellishment of
>>>>>> the truth. I do notice quite a few fets are out of stock at digikey,
>>>>>> so I expect there is a lot of panic buying going on. Not just
>>>>>> Vishay, but other sources as well. A different intel source told me
>>>>>> that they are trying to slow down this environment where purchasing
>>>>>> groups are helter skelter ordering 2x what they need in order to get
>>>>>> what they need. ...
>>>>> That actually _is_ what I recommend to client for some parts. Better to
>>>>> have $3k of extra inventory sitting on the shelf than being hit with a
>>>>> hard 20wk leadtime and next month you have to furlough half the
>>>>> production staff because of a hardcore line stop. I know that
>>>>> accountants and CFOs really don't like this but man's gotta do what
>>>>> man's gotta do.
>>>>>
>>>>> The only explanation I could imagine is that some mfgs must have slammed
>>>>> the brakes end of 2008.
>>>>>
>>>>> [...]
>>>>>
>>>> 20wk lead time sounds like they have to open new mines for raw
>>>> materials, then build plants, then...
>>> One of the Disties was telling me of 214 week lead times. Yes, 2014.
>>
>> Time to re-design for another manufacturer's part, and pronto. That sort
>> of leadtime is almost Maximesque :-)
>
> Ya think! So far we've been OK. I've had to add a bunch of vendors as
> alternatives. Crystals and caps have been a problem. So far our inventory
> control people have been pretty good at keeping inventory. Often far
> exceeding expectations. One crystal that I was going to obsolete had >12K in
> inventory - guess not. I did reduce it from two to one per.


Crystals are fairly easy, no need to stock oodles of those. I tend to
avoid oscillators in a can. A regular standalone crystal can, in a
pinch, be custom ordered from lots of places and isn't going to break
the bank. Ok, it's more expensive but for larger qties you could source
it in China. The main thing is to avoid a line stop.

When I did that with an inductor for a client a long time ago we looked
at it and it was "Wow, custom from Taiwan costs less than catalog from
the US". So they are still using that Taiwanese inductor.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

"gmail" domain blocked because of excessive spam.
Use another domain or send PM.