Why was the Haiti Earthquake was not predictable?
in [Relativity]
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From: BradGuth on 13 Jan 2010 13:57 On Jan 13, 10:38 am, PD <thedraperfam...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On Jan 13, 12:32 pm, BradGuth <bradg...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > On Jan 13, 8:32 am, Sanny <softtank...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > Why was todays, Haiti Earthquake not predictable? > > > > It was ~ 7.0 scale. Why cant we model or simulate the complete earth > > > structure on a Super Computer. That may help predict such earth > > > quakes. > > > > Say, If we know that some earthquake is going to hit someplace in 1-2 > > > days. People can travel away from the place and take their important > > > thing with them. > > > > That way Economical Losses and Deaths can be lowered. > > > > Why do the scientists unable to simulate Earth Quake predictions, Just > > > like they do the Weather Forecasts. > > > Because our mainstream scientists are not allowed to consider > > What makes you think that just because people don't do what you want > them to do, then they are not being allowed to do that? > > > the > > perpetual and thus continual tidal trauma and physical interactions as > > a direct result of our moon(Selene), or that contributed by any other > > nearby planetary alignments (such as Venus and even Jupiter). > > > ~ BG For the same exact reason that you keep getting your mainstream status quo panties in a bunch most every time I have anything to say. You'd much rather do nothing and otherwise above all admit to nothing, rather than get directly involved with interpreting the best available science, much less offering your best swag. ~ BG
From: dlzc on 13 Jan 2010 14:27 Dear Sanny: On Jan 13, 11:29 am, Sanny <softtank...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > Why did you think this was suitable fare for > > an astronomy newsgroup, or one related to > > relativity? > > Earthquake is caused due to collision of earth > crusts. Since Its a Planet related topic, > astronomy can say a bit about earth quakes and > volcanos. No. Astronomy is about observations of distant stars, groupings, and EXOplanets. > All planets have earthquakes & volcanoes we > need to study them too. So in other words, you have no good reason to post off-topic in those newsgroups. Ignorance does not count. David A. Smith
From: dlzc on 13 Jan 2010 14:31 Dear BradGuth: On Jan 13, 11:35 am, BradGuth <bradg...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On Jan 13, 10:20 am, dlzc <dl...(a)cox.net> wrote: > > On Jan 13, 9:32 am, Sanny <softtank...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > > Why was todays, Haiti Earthquake not > > > predictable? > > > Stochastic processes are not predictable. > > We know they are coming, we just *cannot* > > predict when. .... > You are joking again, aren't you. Ever > heard of multi-body tidal alignments? Ever seen any data that shows a positive corrrelation, from any reputable source? There is none. The Moon and planets have aligned in lots of different ways in more than 2.2 billion years, and earthquakes happen when they happen. And that does not always "sync" with a multi-body alignment. David A. Smith
From: BradGuth on 13 Jan 2010 14:32 On Jan 13, 10:33 am, Sanny <softtank...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > > > This Earth Quake cost $2 Billions of loss. If I get even $100 million, > > > I may create a software that predicts EarthQuakes in advance. That > > > could save Billions of Dollars every year and 1000s of lives. > > > You *may* or you *will*? Makes a difference to those that would be > > awarding the grant. > > What's your history of delivering what you say you *will* do? > > I cant guareenty till I do a complete study. As this is a huge > research project. nothing can be said for certainity. > > I can only give a probablistic answer. I hope I could get a system > with 50-60% accurate prediction. You get 50% by flipping a coin. Try to target for being 75% correct on any given +/- day, and you'd be richly rewarded for those efforts. That's giving a 3 day window for something of your predicted earthquake to take place at a given location, say within +/- 100 km would be nice. ~ BG
From: Sanny on 13 Jan 2010 14:40
> > > > This Earth Quake cost $2 Billions of loss. If I get even $100 million, > > > > I may create a software that predicts EarthQuakes in advance. That > > > > could save Billions of Dollars every year and 1000s of lives. > > > > You *may* or you *will*? Makes a difference to those that would be > > > awarding the grant. > > > What's your history of delivering what you say you *will* do? iii > > I cant guareenty till I do a complete study. As this is a huge > > research project. nothing can be said for certainity. > > Lacking a guarantee, then you need a demonstrated history of success. > What's your history of delivering what you say you will do? I once created a program that can predict the outcome of a complex phenomena. It was some Horse racing / Lottery system. I was asked by the client to design a system which predicts a number that will occur next. Then numbers looked very random. But I designed a system that was able to predict the outcome with 80% accuracy. Way better than any human can think of. > > I find every year EarthQuake kills 10,000s of people and a 2 -`10 > > Billions Dollar losses./ year. So creating a EarthQuake predicting > > program will be good thing for mankind. > > > I have the brains to create it. > > This is demonstrated by having a history of success. I designed a prediction program fewyears back, that could predict the outcome based on previous data. The data was so complex that no equation can be fitted. Even Least Square Fitting wont apply. I was able to get the solution. This earthquake prediction is simmilar task but here the number of variables is quite large and its very complex. It requires lot of thinking than just abstract logic. I am competent that I can assure. You have to assure the Funds. [with Everything in Advance.] Bye Sanny |