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From: nospam on 16 May 2010 15:45 In article <5e90v5tt6o93gmhov7vt1f3tjl646ge6ss(a)4ax.com>, Jeff Liebermann <jeffl(a)cruzio.com> wrote: > If AT&T really was after profits, they would never have agreed to the > iPad's $30/month unlimited data plan for the iPad, which is about 60% > of what a 3G dongle costs to operate. They want to hold onto > customers and believe that Apple products are the way to do that. they claim that most people will use it over wifi. i don't know how true that really is, but i'm sure they have better subscriber usage data than i do. there's also a rumour that there was going to be a verizon ipad option but they would not match the pricing. if you look at the ipad insides, the 3g card is exactly that, a card. it's *very* easy to release a sprint/verizon or t-mobile aws ipad. > >there is mounting evidence on several fronts that support more than > >just at&t with the next iphone. > > Maybe, but first there's some litigation to deal with. I'm not the > only one speculating on what's in the contract: > > <http://seekingalpha.com/article/204421-the-complicated-tale-of-at-ts-exclusiv > e-iphone-agreement> While it seems that no one outside of Apple or AT&T has actually seen the contract... exactly what i've been saying. > If the contract had expired or is about to expire, I'm sure there > would have been leaks and pre-announcements of new Apple products. The > sale of every Droid is one less sale of the mythical Verizon iPhone > (within the 2 year contract period). or, the two-for-one deal is to clear stock which is *not* going to sell when verizon gets an iphone. when lte is a reality, there *will* be a multi-carrier iphone. the question is whether they'll do a cdma version to fall back on. > >bottom line: nobody outside of apple and at&t knows when it's over. > > True. Like everyone else, I'm guessing. However, that's the way I > get my thrills. heh
From: SMS on 16 May 2010 16:44 On 16/05/10 10:15 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: > On Sat, 15 May 2010 19:49:43 -0400, nospam<nospam(a)nospam.invalid> > wrote: > >> maybe yes, maybe no. i think the at&t exclusive helped initially but >> it's time has passed. > > If AT&T really was after profits, they would never have agreed to the > iPad's $30/month unlimited data plan for the iPad, which is about 60% > of what a 3G dongle costs to operate. They want to hold onto > customers and believe that Apple products are the way to do that. It's a good deal, but you're very limited as to what you can do with the iPad. You're not going to be downloading DVD images, at least not many of them, there's no Flash support, and there's no tethering (at least it's not supported by Apple). Even if you could tether do you really want to carry an iPad around as your 3G modem/router? You can turn the iPhone into a wi-fi hotspot using it as a 3G modem/router (so you can tether the iPad to the iPhone) but I don't think anyone's gotten the iPad to do that yet.
From: nospam on 16 May 2010 16:51 In article <4bf05926$0$1674$742ec2ed(a)news.sonic.net>, SMS <scharf.steven(a)geemail.com> wrote: > It's a good deal, but you're very limited as to what you can do with the > iPad. You're not going to be downloading DVD images, at least not many > of them, you can buy or stream movies, however, a lot of that is going to be done over wifi at home. > there's no Flash support, which has very little to do with bandwidth. > and there's no tethering (at least > it's not supported by Apple). Even if you could tether do you really > want to carry an iPad around as your 3G modem/router? true, but if it's in the bag, why not, however, it's not something you'd want to carry *just* to have tethering. > You can turn the > iPhone into a wi-fi hotspot using it as a 3G modem/router (so you can > tether the iPad to the iPhone) but I don't think anyone's gotten the > iPad to do that yet. i think they have but as you say, it's not really ideal for a portable tethering device.
From: Dennis Ferguson on 16 May 2010 18:32 On 2010-05-16, Jeff Liebermann <jeffl(a)cruzio.com> wrote: > On Sat, 15 May 2010 19:49:43 -0400, nospam <nospam(a)nospam.invalid> > wrote: > >>maybe yes, maybe no. i think the at&t exclusive helped initially but >>it's time has passed. > > If AT&T really was after profits, they would never have agreed to the > iPad's $30/month unlimited data plan for the iPad, which is about 60% > of what a 3G dongle costs to operate. They want to hold onto > customers and believe that Apple products are the way to do that. I'd note that AT&T's $30/month plans don't provide service equivalent to their 3G dongle (or tethering) plans since the $30 plans are NATted (which makes WiFi tethering double-NATted, which can break even more stuff) while the higher priced plans aren't. It is the case that iPad users are unlikely to notice the difference but from a laptop it may matter to you. As for the profitabiliy of this business, though, I don't know how you are judging that but you clearly aren't doing it by comparing AT&T's SEC filings to their peers (it makes no sense to compare them to Apple, they're in different businesses). As recently as a year and a half ago, and for a long time before that, it would have been perfectly fair to characterize AT&T, in comparison to Verizon, as a low margin, high churn, slower growing and (slightly) lower ARPU carrier. AT&T did not look particularly successful, it even looked like lowly T-Mobile might be able to outgrow them enough to eventually eat some of their lunch too. This last quarter, however, for the first time ever in my memory, AT&T's wireless operations became more profitable than Verizon's measured by operating margin, at 29.9% versus 28.9%. AT&T's overall churn dropped below Verizon's a few quarters ago, and last quarter they matched Verizon's (very low) retail postpaid churn for the first time ever (at 1.07%). AT&T's total customer growth was again higher than Verizon's last quarter, and in fact exceeded Verizon in every sub-category except reseller customers which is where the bulk of Verizon's growth is coming from these days. AT&T's ARPU has been higher than Verizon's for over a year now. And in fact, once the former Alltel customers AT&T acquired transfer over (and assuming they don't leave) AT&T total customer base will have grown to within 4 million of Verizon's post-Alltel number, a gap that could shrink to nothing if they have another year or two like the last one despite the fact that AT&T is able to offer service in a significantly smaller fraction of the country's geography than Verizon. If correlation implies causality in this case then AT&T's exclusive arrangement with Apple has been incredibly valuable for AT&T when compared to their peers (which is the only comparison it makes sense to make). I can see why AT&T would bend over backwards to keep it, and I can see why Verizon would express a strong desire to see it end. Dennis Ferguson
From: nospam on 16 May 2010 18:39
In article <slrnhv0skg.5e.dcferguson(a)akit-ferguson.com>, Dennis Ferguson <dcferguson(a)pacbell.net> wrote: > I'd note that AT&T's $30/month plans don't provide service equivalent > to their 3G dongle (or tethering) plans since the $30 plans are NATted > (which makes WiFi tethering double-NATted, which can break even more > stuff) while the higher priced plans aren't. It is the case that iPad > users are unlikely to notice the difference but from a laptop it may > matter to you. that affects almost nobody and the 3g dongle i've used on at&t gave me a 10.* ip if i recall. i haven't had a problem using vpn over it either. > If correlation implies causality in this case then AT&T's exclusive > arrangement with Apple has been incredibly valuable for AT&T > when compared to their peers (which is the only comparison it makes > sense to make). I can see why AT&T would bend over backwards to > keep it, and I can see why Verizon would express a strong desire > to see it end. at& loves it. they do not want it to end because they know that the iphone is attracting customers from other carriers. if someone can get an iphone and stay with their existing carrier, they probably will, which means at&t won't get as many new subscribers. hopefully that means the monthly rates drop, with the various carriers competing for subscribers. |