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From: Jeff Liebermann on 8 Aug 2010 12:45
On Sun, 08 Aug 2010 07:37:32 -0700, John Navas
<spamfilter1(a)navasgroup.com> wrote:

>On Sat, 07 Aug 2010 14:41:59 -0700, in
><0fir569ng2c2k6seobom2mnubitl9jok38(a)4ax.com>, Jeff Liebermann
><jeffl(a)cruzio.com> wrote:
>
>>On Sat, 07 Aug 2010 06:02:13 -0400, ZnU <znu(a)fake.invalid> wrote:
>
>>>I suspect many
>>>are just buying Android phones as more capable 'feature' phones.
>>
>>Maybe. I suggest you consider brand loyalty. I don't mean Apple iOS
>>versus Android brand loyalty. I mean AT&T versus Verizon. It's been
>>demonstrated that there's little loyalty to AT&T and that a large
>>chunk of iPhone users would move to Verizon if they offered an Verizon
>>iPhone. ...

>Just as a large chunk of Verizon users have apparently moved to AT&T to
>become iPhone users. The net would be anyone's guess.

What, me guess(tm)?

Well, let's see what I can excavate:
<http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20011540-260.html>
Verizon adds 665,000 new customers in the second quarter. AT&T added
496,000.

However, Verizon customers are defecting to AT&T, presumably to get
the iPhone 4.
<http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-postpaid-monthly-churn-rate-for-att-and-verizon-2010-5>
<http://techcrunch.com/2010/07/22/att-iphone-activations/>
Note that churn is measured in percent of (postpaid) customer base
that change vendors per month. At about a 1% churn rate, a vendor
would recycle about 1/8th of their postpaid customers every year.
<http://www.infosyncworld.com/news/n/11152.html>
Verizon is currently at 81.5 million postpaid customers, AT&T at 67.0
million postpaid. No way to declare or predict a winner quite yet as
the first quarter numbers do not include Droid-X and most iPhone 4
sales.

Meanwhile, it appears that Apple has found a scapegoat for the antenna
problem:
<http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/07/papermaster-out/>

--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl(a)cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
From: John Navas on 8 Aug 2010 12:48
On Sun, 08 Aug 2010 12:37:20 -0400, in
<znu-E6AA49.12372008082010(a)Port80.Individual.NET>, ZnU
<znu(a)fake.invalid> wrote:

>In article <sgkt569kivh80jiji4hm81iassi99cktn6(a)4ax.com>,
> John Navas <spamfilter1(a)navasgroup.com> wrote:

>> Nothing wrong with that -- Android is getting the best of both worlds.
>
>See next response.
>
>> >You don't need a Mac to write Android apps, and they're
>> >written in Java, which is a more widely used language than Obj-C.
>>
>> Benefits of the Android model.
>
>Not if it results in junky hobbyware crowding higher quality apps out,
>it's not.

I see no evidence of that, and don't think it likely.

>> Available evidence suggests otherwise; e.g.,
>> <http://www.gomonews.com/android-go-boom-mobile-analytics-points-to-explosion-
>> of-development/>
>
>The data is from last October, which was still early days. It's easy to
>have huge relative growth that early in the game, because the baseline
>is so low.

There's ample evidence of continued rapid growth (but since you're
probably just going to reject them, I'm not going to waste time on more
citations).

>See also:
>http://blog.flurry.com/bid/31825/iPad-Developer-Support-Continues-to-Soar
>
>Android project starts are still growing, but iOS project starts are
>growing even faster, thanks in part to iPad. (RIM just appears totally
>screwed in making the transition from e-mail appliances to real
>smartphones.)

Flurry data is biased toward Apple. Got anything more objective?

--
John

"Assumption is the mother of all screw ups."
[Wethern�s Law of Suspended Judgement]
From: nospam on 8 Aug 2010 12:51
In article <znu-979B83.12224208082010(a)Port80.Individual.NET>, ZnU
<znu(a)fake.invalid> wrote:

> > >But issues related to specific Android models receive sufficiently
> > >little coverage that regular consumers aren't going to hear about them.
> >
> > As it should be, since they don't affect most consumers.
>
> They'll affect consumers buying those models, obviously.

it's a double-standard. when it's apple, it makes national news. when
it's htc, who cares.

> > >> Android looks better because its model is better.
> > >
> > >There are a lot of Android handsets on the market, and only a handful
> > >that are really even in the same class as the iPhone. These are the ones
> > >that everyone focuses on in tech newsgroups, but I'd bet it's some
> > >combination of the lower-end Android handsets (some of which have been
> > >subsidized down to $0 or handed out in 2-for-1 deals at various times)
> > >that account for most of the sales.
> >
> > Pretty much all Android handsets to date are in the same class as the
> > iPhone. We'll probably see a lot of lower class Android handsets in the
> > future, but not thus far.
>
> This is simply not true. There are Android phones on the market with
> screen resolutions as low as 240x320. There are Android phones with
> slower processors, less internal storage (they practically all have less
> internal storage), user interfaces bastardized by clueless hardware
> companies, accelerometers that don't really work, unremovable apps
> bundled or features disabled by clueless carriers, old versions of the
> operating system, etc.

i was stunned to read that htc phones released in 2009 (that's just
eight months ago) will not get froyo 2.2. i was also surprised to see
that in some cases, 2.2 won't ship until the end of the year for some
phones.

also, the screen on some android phones is nearly impossible to see in
sunlight. how the heck do you dial a touch-screen phone when you can't
see the screen?

> All of this stuff tends to get ignored when people are comparing Android
> phones to the iPhone -- they compare the best Android phones, not the
> Android phones the masses are necessarily using.

true.

> And even then, it's quite common, when someone points out some issue
> with one of those better Android phones, to just say "Well, then buy
> another Android phone". But of course that doesn't usually help -- the
> other Android phone you pick will just have some other issue. "Choice"
> isn't a substitute for quality.

also true.
From: nospam on 8 Aug 2010 12:53
In article <h1ht56h23jirsiu43ndgtb69nmrmihu60c(a)4ax.com>, John Navas
<spamfilter1(a)navasgroup.com> wrote:

> Google's own Nexus One received comparable criticism to iPhone 4 even
> though its problems were less severe.

bullshit it did. the iphone issue made national news. the nexus one you
had to actually dig for it to find out and even with the iphone in the
news, nobody mentions that the nexus one has the same problem.
From: John Navas on 8 Aug 2010 13:04
On Sun, 08 Aug 2010 12:29:05 -0400, in
<znu-639EE4.12290408082010(a)Port80.Individual.NET>, ZnU
<znu(a)fake.invalid> wrote:

>In article <rtit56t3l063ds16d17bdatpag6m7fdg5g(a)4ax.com>,
> John Navas <spamfilter1(a)navasgroup.com> wrote:

>> I can't imagine how. Perhaps I'm missing your point. An Apple
>> problem affects the entire population of phones, whereas a given
>> Android handset problem doesn't affect all the other Android
>> handsets. Advantage Android, a matter of the open business model,
>> not fairness.
>
>The odds of any _specific_ model of Android phone having an issue are no
>lower than the odds of a given year's iPhone having an issue.

I see no basis for that claim. Perhaps you're confusing Android, made
by Google, with Android hardware, make by experienced hardware players.

Apple has come up to speed remarkably well, but its mistakes are
evidence of how new it is to the party as compared to much more
experienced players like Nokia and Motorola. Google likewise, as
evidenced by Nexus One.

If your priority is great radio performance, go Nokia or Motorola.
If your priority is style, go Apple.
If your priority is software, go Google.

>From the
>perspective of an _individual user_ this is all that matters. The fact
>that more people will have the same issue with the iPhone vs. on average
>the same number of people having assorted _different_ issues with
>Android phones results in Apple getting more negative PR but doesn't
>actually indicate there are more users with issue. That was my point.

Since _all_ iPhone users tend to be impacted by any iPhone hardware
issue, whereas a given Android hardware issue won't affect the majority
of Android users, greater publicity is both understandable and
meaningful.

--
John

"Assumption is the mother of all screw ups."
[Wethern�s Law of Suspended Judgement]
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